[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051800
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Oct 5 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Leslie centered near 36.2N 58.4W at 05/1500 UTC
or 400 nm NE of Bermuda moving NNW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 986 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55
kt with gusts to 65 kt. A turn toward the north and a decrease in
forward speed are expected later today, and a turn toward the
east and east-southeast is expected on Saturday. A slight
weakening is forecast during the next few days. Leslie remains a
large tropical storm, with tropical-storm-forcewinds extending
outward up to 290 miles (465 km) from the center. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is near the center from 35N-
39N between 53W-60W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is S of the center from 31N-34N between 57W-64W. See
the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC for more details.

A large cyclonic gyre is over the western Caribbean centered just
off the NE coast of Honduras near 16N84W. A surface trough
extends from 21N84W to the center to 09N82W. Scattered moderate
to numerous strong convection is from 12N-19N between 77W-83W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over the Gulf
of Honduras from 15N-18N between 85W-89W. A tropical depression
could form by late this weekend or early next week over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea or Gulf of Mexico while the system
moves northwestward to northward. Regardless of tropical cyclone
formation, this disturbance will continue to bring torrential
rains primarily to portions of Central America and the Yucatan
peninsula during the next few days. There is a medium chance of
tropical cyclone formation within 48 hours.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical is along 34W from 03N-16N, moving
westward at 15 kt. GOES-16 Total Precipitable Water imagery shows
a moisture maximum surrounding the wave. The wave also has an
associated 700 mb trough. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is from 04N-14N between 25W-35W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is also E of the wave axis from 05N-
12N between 24W-30W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 51W/52W from 05N-18N
moving westward at 10-15 kt. The wave has an associated 700 mb
trough. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N-13N between
43W-57W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 12N17W
to 08N32W. The ITCZ extends from 08N36W to 08N51W, then continues
west of a tropical wave from 09N54W to the coast of northeast
Venezuela near 09N60W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the
tropical waves section, scattered moderate convection is along the
coast of W Africa from 03N-06N between 05W-14W. Scattered
moderate convection is also from 13N- 15N between 41W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Scattered showers are moving westward over the eastern Gulf from
25N-28N between 87W-90W due to a surface trough that extends from
29N87W to 24N87W, moving W. A surface trough is over the Bay of
Campeche from 22N97W to 18N92W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm
of the trough. The remainder of the basin is under the influence
of a surface ridge, anchored by a 1020 mb high centered along the
coast of Georgia near 31N81W.

Of note in the upper levels, an east to west trough axis is along
24N across the Gulf.

Expect surface ridging to prevail over the forecast area through
the weekend. A surface trough will develop each evening over the
Yucatan Peninsula. The trough will move into the SW Gulf
overnight, where it will dissipate each morning. Moderate to fresh
winds will accompany the trough.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A large cyclonic gyre is over the western Caribbean. See above.

Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is along the
coast of N Venezuela to include the ABC islands from 11N-16N
between 67W-72W, due to the remnants of a tropical wave.

Widely scattered moderate convection is over the northern
Caribbean from 18N-22N between 60W-78W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two tropical waves are over the tropical Atlantic between the
west coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles. See above for
details. Leslie is also described in the Special Features section
above.

A 1020 high is centered over the W Atlantic near 31N81W producing
fair weather. A surface trough is over the E Atlantic from 31N25W
to 24N37W. Scattered showers are from 23N-27N between 27W-32W.

In the upper levels, an upper level low is centered over the
central Atlantic near 29N62W. Upper level diffluence E of the
center is producing a line of convection from 32N47W to 23N58W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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