[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030522
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
122 AM EDT Wed Oct 3 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Leslie centered near 29.7N 56.7W at 03/0300 UTC
or 440 nm ESE of Bermuda moving SW at 3 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 986 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60
kt with gusts to 75 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within
175 nm of the center. Leslie is forecast to become a hurricane
on Wednesday. A turn to the the north is expected to begin late
Wednesday and should continue through early Friday. See the latest
NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT3/WTNT33
KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 20W
from 03N-15N, moving westward 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is occurring within 150 nm west of the wave's axis.
The wave coincides with a maximum in total column water vapor as
depicted in the GOES-16 TPW product. The wave has a 700 mb trough
associated with it, as shown by model analyses.

A tropical wave is entering the eastern Caribbean with axis along
62W from 06N-18N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. A well-defined 700
mb trough is shown in model analyses just east of where the wave
is analyzed, but lacks significant convection. A TPW animation
shows a moisture maximum is associated with this tropical wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 11N15W
to 07N24W to 10N37W. The ITCZ extends from 10N37W to 09N60W.
Aside from the convection mentioned in the tropical waves section
above, scattered showers are observed within 60 nm north of the
ITCZ between 35W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is analyzed over the northeastern Gulf along 88W
from 27N-30N. Scattered showers are noted in the vicinity of the
trough mainly north of 27N and east of 88W. This trough, along
with increasing moisture in the northeastern Gulf, will continue
enhancing convection overnight. Another trough extends across the
Bay of Campeche from 22N97W to 20N95W with scattered showers.
Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin

Expect ridging to prevail over the forecast area during the next
few days. A surface trough will develop each evening over the
Yucatan Peninsula. The trough will move into the SW Gulf
overnight, where it will dissipate each morning. Moderate to fresh
winds will accompany the trough.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is entering the eastern Caribbean. Refer to the
section above for details. A broad surface trough along 81W is
associated with a broad area of low pressure located over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea. Satellite imagery shows scattered
moderate convection prevailing between 70W-86W. This convection
is enhanced by an area of upper-level diffluence. Some gradual
development of the broad low pressure area is possible late this
week and this weekend while the low drifts generally in a
northward direction. A deepening mid to upper level trough over
the northern Caribbean and Greater Antilles will help advect
moisture northward as the week progresses. As a result, heavy rain
is likely to spread over sections of Hispaniola and Jamaica later
this week and into the weekend.

Broad mid-level ridging is over the east Caribbean with
associated westerly upper level flow leading to generally quiet
weather conditions east of 70W.

Large NNE swell generated from Leslie will pass through the Atlantic
passages into the Caribbean waters.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A tropical wave is moving over the tropical Atlantic and is
described in the Tropical Waves section above. Tropical Storm
Leslie is described in the Special Features section above.

A broad mid to upper-level trough over Leslie combined with an
area of upper-level diffluence to the southeast of the system
continues to enhance convection from 24N-30N between 39W-51W. The
eastern portion of the forecast area is under the influence of a
surface ridge, anchored by a 1019 mb surface high near 26N34W.
Generally quiet weather prevails north of 20N and east of 40W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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