[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

EMWIN Server emwin at nashvilleweather.net
Tue Oct 2 07:04:10 CDT 2018


AXNT20 KNHC 021203
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
803 AM EDT Tue Oct 2 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Leslie is centered near 31.6N 55.6W at 0900 UTC,
or 470 nm E of Bermuda, moving SW at 6 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 989 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 55 kt
with gusts to 65 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 120
nm of the center in the northern semicircle, with weaker
convection in the southern semicircle extending out to 180 nm. A
slow southwestward or south-southwestward motion is expected
through Wednesday morning. A turn to the north is forecast to
occur late Wednesday into Thursday, followed by a motion toward
the north-northeast on Friday. Gradual strengthening is expected
during the next 48 hours, and Leslie is forecast to become a
hurricane by Wed morning. Public Advisories for Leslie are the
WMO header WTNT33 KNHC, and the AWIPS header MIATCPAT3.
Forecast/Advisories for Leslie are the WMO header WTNT23 KNHC, and
the AWIPS header MIATCMAT3.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 47W from 02N-14N, moving
W around 15-20 kt. Scattered showers are near 09N-10N, where it
intersects the ITCZ axis.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 59W from Guyana to 18N,
moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave has a well defined 700 mb trough
associated with it, but lacks significant convection. A TPW
animation shows a moisture maximum is associated with this
tropical wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near Senegal
10N20W to 09N35W. The ITCZ extends from 09N35W to 10N46W. The ITCZ
resumes west of the tropical wave along 47W and continues to
09N58W. Scattered showers are along and within 60 nm south of the
ITCZ axis between 36W-54W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is analyzed over the northeast Gulf along 84W
from 25N-29N. The trough is producing scattered showers and
thunderstorms over the eastern Gulf near the trough axis. A
narrow upper-level trough axis located over the northern Gulf
coast. This could help to enhance showers and thunderstorms today
in the region.

Expect ridging to prevail over the forecast area during the next
few days. A surface trough will develop each evening over the
Yucatan peninsula. The trough will move into the SW Gulf
overnight, where it will dissipate each morning. Moderate to fresh
winds will accompany the trough.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough along 79W is associated with a broad area of low
pressure located over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Numerous
strong convection is observed east of the surface trough from
12N-17N between 74W-78W. Elsewhere east of the surface trough,
scattered moderate convection is present from 11N-18N between
73W-79W. Convection is being enhanced by upper-level diffluence
east of an upper trough over the same region. Some gradual
development of this system is possible late this week and this
weekend while the low drifts generally northward during the next
several days.

Upper level troughing extends over much of the NW Caribbean Sea.
Scattered showers are in the Yucatan Channel. Broad upper level
ridging is over the east-central Caribbean with westerly upper
level flow, leading to generally quiet weather conditions east of
71W.

Large NNE swell generated from Leslie will pass through Atlantic
passages into the Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A broad mid to upper level trough in the vicinity of Leslie is
helping to enhance convection to the southeast of Leslie.
Scattered moderate convection is observed from 24N-29N between
42W-48W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring within
60 nm of a line from 24N66W to 25N75W. A cluster of convection,
which is also being influenced by the broad upper trough, is
occurring within 90 nm of 22N54W.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms in advance of a tropical wave
over west Africa are occurring east of 20W from 01N-15N.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Mundell/Hagen/Aguirre
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