[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011204
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
804 AM EDT Mon Oct 1 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Leslie is centered near 33.4N 53.9W at 01/0900 UTC
or 550 nm E of Bermuda moving WSW at 4 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 990 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt
with gusts to 60 kt. Numerous moderate convection is within 120
west of the center and within 210 nm north of the center. A slow
southwestward or southward motion is forecast during the next few
days. Additional gradual strengthening is expected during the next
48 hours, and Leslie is forecast to become a hurricane on Tuesday
or Tuesday night. The Public Advisories for Leslie are
transmitted via the WMO header WTNT33 KNHC, and via the AWIPS
header MIATCPAT3. The Forecast/Advisories for Leslie are
transmitted via the WMO header WTNT23 KNHC, and via the AWIPS
header MIATCMAT3.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 41W from 02N-14N, moving
W around 20 kt. The southern portion of the wave has a 700 mb
trough associated with it. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are from 08N-13N between 37W-45W. Another area of
isolated to scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N-08N
from 36W-39W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 55/56W from 02N-16N,
moving W at 15-20 kt. The wave has a well defined 700 mb trough
associated with it. The SSMI and GOES-16 TPW imageries also show
a moist area around the wave axis. During the past 6 hours, little
to no shower or thunderstorm activity has occurred near the wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal
near 14N17W, to 10N26W to 08N36W. The ITCZ extends from 07N43W to
near the coast of French Guiana near 05N52W. Aside from the
convection associated with the tropical waves, isolated to scattered
moderate convection is within 180 nm north of the monsoon trough
between 19W-22W and within 180 nm south of the monsoon trough
between 21W-27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough oriented NNE-SSW is over E Texas. Upper
level diffluence E of this feature covers much of the central Gulf
and is producing isolated moderate convection over the western
Gulf of Mexico, and the northern Gulf of Mexico, including within
50 nm of the middle Texas coast. Another area of convection is
note offshore of Apalachicola, FL. At the surface, weak ridging
is producing 10-15 kt easterly winds. Expect the surface ridging
to persist for much of the week with similar surface winds. A
surface trough will develop each evening in the Yucatan peninsula.
The trough will move into the SW Gulf of Mexico overnight, where
it will dissipate each morning. Moderate to fresh winds will
accompany the trough.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level troughing extends over much of Cuba and the northwest
Caribbean Sea. Scattered showers are over the Yucatan Channel and
waters from 20N-22N between 82W-85W. Broad upper level ridging is
over the central and eastern Caribbean with westerly upper level
flow.

The Caribbean Sea tropical wave that was previously along 76W is
now analyzed as a trough. Scattered moderate convection is
located south of 18N between 72W-82W. Furthermore, scattered
moderate convection is occurring over the southwest Caribbean due
to a combination of this trough and the eastern Pacific monsoon
trough. The trough will remain nearly stationary or perhaps move
very slowly toward the western Caribbean over the next several
days. A large cyclonic gyre could develop over this area by the
end of the week.

Moderate to fresh winds will persist in the central and eastern
sections of the Caribbean Sea through Tuesday morning.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A small upper level low is centered over the Bahamas near 24N74W.
Isolated to scattered moderate convection is over the W Atlantic
from 26N-31N between 71W-81W. A large upper level low is centered
over the central Atlantic near 28N46W. More widely scattered
moderate convection is from 23N-30N between 42W-50W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa/Hagen
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