[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010515
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
115 AM EDT Mon Oct 1 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Leslie centered near 33.3N 53.7W at 01/0300 UTC
or 560 nm E of Bermuda moving WSW at 5 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 991 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45
kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within
180 nm of the NE quadrant. A slow southwestward or southward
motion is forecast during the next few days. Some gradual
strengthening is forecast during the next 72 hours, and Leslie may
become a hurricane in two to three days time. The Public
Advisories for Leslie are transmitted via the WMO header WTNT33
KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCPAT3. The Forecast/Advisories
for Leslie are transmitted via the WMO header WTNT23 KNHC, and via
the AWIPS header MIATCMAT3.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 38W from 02N-14N, moving
W at 15-20 kt. The wave has a 700 mb trough associated with it.
Widely scattered moderate convection is from 08N-12N between 36W-
43W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 54W from 03N-17N, moving
W at 15 kt. The wave has a well defined 700 mb trough associated
with it. The SSMI TPW imagery also shows a moist area around the
wave axis. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the wave axis.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 76W from 07N-20N, moving W
at 10-15 kt. This tropical wave is associated with the remnants of
Kirk. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is E of
the wave axis from 14N-20N between 69W-75W. Similar convection is
W of the wave axis from 12N-16N between 77W-83W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal
near 14N17W, to 07N36W. The ITCZ extends from 07N40 to the coast
of Brazil near 04N51W. Widely scattered moderate convection is
from 10N-13N between 22W-28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level low is centered over E Texas near 31N97W. Upper
level diffluence E of the center is producing isolated moderate
convection over the western Gulf of Mexico, and the northern Gulf
of Mexico.

On the surface, weak ridging is producing 10-15 kt easterly winds.

Expect the surface ridging to persist for much of the week with
similar surface winds. A surface trough will develop each evening
in the Yucatan peninsula. The trough will move into the SW Gulf
of Mexico overnight, where it will dissipate each morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level low is centered over W Cuba near 22N84W. Scattered
showers are over the Straits of Florida, the Yucatan Channel, and
W Cuba. Broad upper level ridging is over the central and eastern
Caribbean with westerly flow.

The tropical wave along 76W is the primary weather producer in
the Caribbean Sea. See above. Furthermore, the eastern extent of
the E Pacific monsoon trough is producing widely scattered
moderate convection over Costa Rica, Panama, and N Colombia.

Moderate to fresh winds will persist in the central and eastern
sections of the Caribbean Sea through Tuesday morning. Gentle to
moderate winds will dominate the entire basin during the remainder
of the period. A surface low pressure center is forecast to
develop off the coast of Nicaragua on Thursday, and it is expected
to track NNE to the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea next weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A small upper level low is centered over the Bahamas near 24N75W.
Widely scattered moderate convection is over the W Atlantic from
29N-31N between 73W-81W. A large upper level low is centered over
the central Atlantic near 28N46W. More widely scattered moderate
convection is from 19N-30N between 40W-49W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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