[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281151
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
651 AM EST Wed Nov 28 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 06000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gale Warning expected for Atlantic Waters...


A cold front extending from 31N67W to W Cuba near 22.5N81W will
move southeast and reach from 26N65W to eastern Cuba by this
evening, then from 23N65W to N Windward Passage Thursday evening.
Strong to minimal gale force winds are expected N of about 28N, on
either side of the front through this evening before these conditions
lift out to the NE of area. Please refer to the latest High Seas
Forecast issued under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for
more information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from west Africa near 08N14W to
07N17W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 03N34W to South
America near 03N50W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is seen along the ITCZ between 20W-35W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridge continues to build in the wake of the front
anchored by a 1022 mb high centered over northern Gulf near
29N92W. No significant convection occurring at this time over
the basin. Abundant high level clouds are observed across much of
the northwest Gulf associated to upper level diffluence east of
the low pressure near 23N109W. Moderate to fresh northerly winds
will prevail over the Gulf of Mexico with a considerable amount of
cold air advection.

1022 mb high pressure centered along the SE Louisiana coast will
slide slowly ENE across the N Gulf through Thu to maintain fresh
to strong northerly winds across the E Bay of Campeche and the
eastern half of the Gulf. As the high slides ENE today, southerly
return flow will develop across the NW Gulf and gradually spread
across entire Gulf by Fri. The next cold front will move off the
Texas coast Sat morning and meander across the NW Gulf through Sun
before reinforcing high pressure forces front SE Sun night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends from W Cuba near 22.5N81W to Mexican coast
near 19.5N88W. The front will sink ESE, reach from eastern Cuba to
N Belize this evening, then becoming stationary E to W along 20N
Thursday evening. No significant convection is noted in the tail
end of the front. The front will reach from eastern Cuba to
Belize late Wed while weakening, with remnants of the front
lifting N across the NW Caribbean on Thu night and Fri.


To the east, a surface trough extends from 19N83W to 16N87W.
Further S, scattered moderate convection is over the southwest
Caribbean south of 14N between 75W-83W mostly due to the
proximity of the eastern extent of the Eastern Pacific monsoon
trough. The remainder of the basin remains under fair weather
mostly due to an upper-level high near 17N68W with strong
subsidence across much of the basin.

The weakening remnants of the front will then lift N across the
NW Caribbean Thu night through late Fri. Moderate to fresh winds
will prevail across the remainder of the basin, with fresh to
locally strong nocturnal trades along the N coast of Colombia
tonight through the remainder of the week. Moderate to fresh
trades will dominate the waters E of the Windward Islands, while
mainly gentle to moderate winds are expected E of the Leeward
Islands. Long period N to NW swell dominate Atlc seas through much
of the forecast period.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for information
on the Gale Warning in effect for the west Atlantic.

A cold front was reposition due to current observations and
satellite analysis which show the front from 31N66W to W Cuba
near 22.5N81W. Scattered showers are present 100 nm east to
of the front and north of 28N. A few showers are noticeable
south of 28N with a mix of scattered to broken clouds across
the area.

A cold front over the east Atlantic extends from 31N31W to
23N48W. This front then transitions to a stationary front from
that point to 22N53W. Scattered showers are noted north of 21N
between 38W- 41W.

The cold front will move southeast and reach from 26N65W to
eastern Cuba by this evening, then from 23N65W to N Windward
Passage Thursday evening. Strong to minimal gale force winds are
expected N of about 28N, on either side of the front through this
evening before these conditions lift out to the NE of area. High
pressure behind the front will slide ENE into the W Atlc early Fri
as front become nearly stationary from 21N65W to Windward passage
and gradually dissipates through Sat. Long period N to NW swell
will dominate most Atlc waters through the weekend. Surface
ridging prevails elsewhere.
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