[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271759
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1259 PM EST Tue Nov 27 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gale Warning expected for Atlantic Waters...

The cold front is presently over the W Atlantic from 31N72W to the
Straits of Florida near 25N80W. Tonight on 28/0600 UTC, the front
is forecast to extend from 31N68W to 22N80W. Gale force SW winds
are expected N of 28N E of front to 63W with seas 10-14 ft. Gale
force NW winds are also expected N of 29N W of front to 79W with
seas 10-14 ft. Gale force winds are forecast to end on 29/0000
UTC. Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast issued under
the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from west Africa near 09N13W to
07N17W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 02N30W to South
America near 01N50W. Widely scattered moderate convection is over
a large area from 00N-05N between 12W-52W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 27/1500 UTC, a cold front extends from the Straits of
Florida near 25N80W to the N Yucatan Peninsula near 21N88W to
S Mexico near 18N92W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm S of the
front. A 1028 mb high is over NE Mexico near 27N100W. 15-25 N
winds are over the Gulf of Mexico with a considerable amount of
cold air advection. Broken to overcast cold air stratocumulus
clouds are over the Gulf S of 25N.

High pressure will build over the Gulf in the wake of the front
and maintain fresh to strong northerly winds across south and
southeast portions through Wed morning. Return flow will develop
across the NW Gulf Wed and gradually spread across the entire
Gulf by Fri. The next cold front will move off the Texas coast
Sat.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front spans the Yucatan Channel. Scattered showers are
along the front. More scattered showers are over the NW Caribbean
to include the Gulf of Honduras. Further S, scattered moderate
convection is over the SW Caribbean S of 13N mostly due to the
proximity of the eastern extent of the Eastern Pacific monsoon
trough. The remainder of the basin remains under fair weather
mostly due to an upper-level high centered over Jamaica near
18N78W with strong subsidence.

A weak surface pressure gradient across the basin is producing
moderate to fresh winds across much of the area, with fresh to
locally strong nocturnal trades along the N coast of Colombia
through the remainder of the week. A cold front will move into
the Yucatan Basin late this morning, and weaken from the E tip
of Cuba to Belize late Wed, with remnants of the front lifting N
across the NW Caribbean on Thu night and Fri. Moderate to fresh
trades and seas to 8 ft currently across the tropical Atlantic
waters E of the Windwards will subside slightly through Wed night
before winds become fresh to strong Thu through Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for information
on the Gale Warning in effect for the W Atlantic.

A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N72W to the Straits of
Florida near 25N80W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm S of the
front. Broken to overcast low clouds are within 180 nm N of the
front. A 1018 mb high is over the W Atlantic near 24N62W. A cold
front is over the E Atlantic from 31N40W to 22N55W. Widely
scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm S of the front.

Both cold fronts will move E over the next 48 hours with showers
and convection.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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