[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 242327
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
627 PM EST Sat Nov 24 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING in the Western Gulf of Mexico...

A cold front will develop and move over the western Gulf of
Mexico from 30N86W to 21N97W on Monday. Gale-force winds are
expected west of front from 22N to 23N and west of 96W, and seas
will reach 8 ft. Please refer to the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST
issued under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more
information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from west Africa near 10N14W to
04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W to 00N47W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 02N-06N between 20W-33W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1009 mb low is centered over the Florida Panhandle near 30N84W.
A cold front extends SW from the low to 25N88W to 23N96W, then a
surface trough extends from that point to 19N95W. A 1013 mb high
is building in the wake of the front near 29N91W. Gentle to
moderate winds are noted across the basin.

Expect the surface low to move northeast across while dragging
its front across the gulf waters. Another cold front will move
off the Texas coast on Sun night, and reach from the Florida
Panhandle to the Bay of Campeche early Monday. See the section above
for more information about this front and the Gale Warning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends over the Windward Passage along 73W.
Another surface trough is over the Leeward Islands along 61W. No
significant convection is related to these features at this time.

Fresh to locally strong trades are forecast across the
tropical waters E of the Windwards tonight into Sunday morning.
Locally strong nocturnal trades are forecast to resume along the
NW coast of Colombia tonight and continue through the period.
Elsewhere, moderate trades are expected N of 17N, while fresh
trades are forecast S of 17N.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1009 mb low is over the west Atlantic near 26N71W. A warm front
extends from the low to the east near 27N64W. A stationary front
continues from this point to 27N50W. A cold front is from 27N50W
to beyond 32N38W. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the
vicinity of these features mainly from 45W-55W and 60W-72W. A
1026 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic near 27N32W.

Fresh to locally strong SW flow will set up along the NE Florida
coast by late Sunday ahead of cold front that will move off the
SE United States coast on Mon evening. This front will extend
from Bermuda to the NW Bahamas by late Tuesday, and weaken from
28N55W to the SE Bahamas by mid-week.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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