[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211158
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
658 AM EST Wed Nov 21 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is
listed on the website: www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-
marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2. The OUTLOOK, for the 24
hours that follow the forecast that is valid until 22/1200 UTC,
consists of: the threat of SW near gale or gale at the end of the
forecast period in IRVING.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W to 07N15W. The ITCZ continues from 07N15W, to
05N24W, 01N36W, 02N40W, and to 02N48W. Widely scattered moderate
to isolated strong rainshowers are from 03N to 08N between 09W and
15W, from the Equator to 05N between 26W and 35W, and from 02N to
09N between 36W and 42W. Isolated moderate to locally strong
rainshowers are elsewhere from 13N southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Middle level to upper level W and SW wind flow/some broad
anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire area.

A cold front passes through 32N76W in the Atlantic Ocean, across
Florida near 29N82W, to 26N91W in the Gulf of Mexico. The front
becomes stationary at 26N91W, to 25N92W, and it continues to the
northern part of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico,
and eventually northwestward to 29N102W in Mexico just to the
south of the Big Bend of Texas. GALE-FORCE winds are present in
the Gulf of Tehuantepec on the eastern Pacific Ocean side of
Mexico. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers cover the
area that is from 27N southward from 90W. Rainshowers are possible
elsewhere from 24N northward from 83W westward, and from 24N
southward from 90W westward.

The surface pressure gradient between high pressure in Arkansas
and a frontal boundary across the basin is producing an area of
fresh to strong winds, mainly to the west of the current frontal
boundary. The front will stall from southern Florida to near
26N95W to Veracruz Mexico on Thursday. Surface low pressure, that
is developing along the front on Thursday, will generate strong
winds within 120 nm of the Texas coast. The wind speeds and the
sea heights will subside on Friday, as the low pressure center
and the front gradually dissipate.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire area from 64W
westward. An upper level trough. An upper level trough extends
from NE Venezuela beyond 13N57W, into the Atlantic Ocean. A
middle level inverted trough covers the SW corner of the area, and
the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. A 700 mb inverted trough is
along 80W from 18N southward to Panama.

Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery from 09N to 24N between 55W and 68W/69W, covering parts
of the Caribbean Sea and the Atlantic Ocean.

The monsoon trough is along 08N/10N between 73W in Colombia and
86W in NW Costa Rica, and beyond into the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 12N
southward from 76W westward. Scattered moderate to strong
rainshowers are within 150 nm of the coast of Panama between 80W
and 83W. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 12N southward
from 76W westward. High-level clouds are moving northward, in the
inland areas and coastal plains/coastal waters of Nicaragua and
Honduras.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that
ended at 21/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.13 in
Guadeloupe, and 0.02 in Curacao.

Fresh to occasionally strong winds will continue along the coast
of Colombia through Thursday. Trade winds are expected to subside
on Friday. Large long period NE swell in the Atlantic Ocean will
continue to impact the waters that are to the east of the Lesser
Antilles through tonight.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N76W in the Atlantic Ocean, across
Florida near 29N82W, to 26N91W in the Gulf of Mexico. The front
becomes stationary at 26N91W, to 25N92W, and it continues to the
northern part of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico,
and eventually northwestward to 29N102W in Mexico just to the
south of the Big Bend of Texas. Isolated moderate rainshowers are
to the NW of the line that passes through 32N70W to 28N80W.

A second cold front passes through 32N65W to 29N70W and 29N74W.
A stationary front is along 29N74W, curving to 26N82W in Florida.
A surface trough is along 31N62W 28N69W 23N73W near the Bahamas.
Isolated moderate rainshowers are from the NE Caribbean Sea
northward between 60W and 78W.

A third cold front passes through 32N10W, to the western part of
the Canary Islands, to 28N28W, 23N38W, and it continues a 1017 mb
low pressure center that is near 35N49W. Isolated moderate to
locally strong rainshowers are from 20N northward from 60W
eastward. The 24-hour rainfall total in inches for Bermuda was
0.08, ending at 21/0000 UTC.

The current cold front from south central Florida to 29N74W will
reach the central Bahamas later today, then stall from Thursday
through Friday night. Strong surface high pressure, building
behind a reinforcing cold front on Friday and Saturday, will
cause strong easterly winds to develop to the NE of the Bahamas.
The sea heights outside the Bahamas will build to between 9 feet
and 14 feet from Friday through Saturday night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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