[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191733
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1232 PM EST Mon Nov 19 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia
near 06N11W to 03N16W. The ITCZ continues from 03N16W to 03N25W
to 04N33W. The ITCZ resumes west of a surface trough near 05N37W
and continues to 04N43W. A surface trough curves from 09N31W
08N34W to 05N35W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is seen
from the Equator to 12N between 05W-21W. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are noted from 02N-10N between 21W-45W. An upper
level trough is pulling mid and high level clouds northeastward,
well to the east of the Lesser Antilles. Isolated moderate
rainshowers are within 120 nm of a line from 11N59W to 14N55W to
20N49W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front over southern Louisiana passes midway between
Lafayette and Lake Charles, enters the Gulf near 30N93W, and
continues to a 1016 mb low near 27N96W. A cold front extends from
that low southward to 24.5N97W and westward into northern Mexico
near 24N98W to 25N100W, where it becomes a stationary front and
continues farther inland. Broken to overcast clouds along with
scattered showers and thunderstorms cover the Gulf of Mexico to
the NW of a line extending from 23N98W to 26N89W to 30.5N86.5W.

A surface trough is analyzed from 27N84W to 25N84.5W to western
Cuba near 22N83W. Isolated showers are possible over the SE Gulf
of Mexico near the trough axis extending to near the lower
Florida Keys and offshore the SW coast of Florida.

The cold front that extends SW from the low near 27N96W will
become stationary this evening. A cold front will move off the
Texas coast late tonight and merge with the stationary front early
Tue as it then extends from near Panama City to weak low pressure
of 1018 mb near 27N92W, and from the low to near Veracruz. The
cold front will reach from near Cross City, Florida to near 26N90W
to Tampico by Tue evening. Fresh to strong north winds are
forecast west of this front across the W central Gulf and western
Bay of Campeche through late Tue night, then in the far
southwestern Gulf through early Wed afternoon. The western portion
of the front will stall and then drift northwestward over the far
western Gulf through late Wed night. The eastern portion of the
front will become stationary across the southeastern Gulf by Thu.
Low pressure is expected to develop offshore Texas Thu and track
eastward across the northern Gulf through Fri accompanied by fresh
to strong winds.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A NE-to-SW surface trough is along 20N85W to 18N87W to 16N88W,
just to the east of Belize and to the north of western Honduras.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are from 20N southward from
85W westward.

The monsoon trough is along 08N between 75W in Colombia and beyond
83W in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is occurring over Panama and the waters of the extreme
SW Caribbean south of 11N between 76W-84W.

A small area of upper-level divergence in between Jamaica and
Hispaniola is leading to scattered showers and thunderstorms from
18N-19N between 75W-78W.

The surface trough over the Gulf of Honduras will continue to
support scattered showers and thunderstorms through tonight,
including in parts of Belize. Strong high pressure north of the
region will continue to support fresh to strong winds along the
coast of Colombia through Tue morning. Winds will briefly diminish
as a front passes to the north of the area. The winds will return
again Tue night and continue through Wed night as a new ridge
builds north of the area.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough passes through 32N79W off the coast of South
Carolina, to 29N80W to 27N80W off the coast of Palm Beach County
Florida. Scattered showers are seen just off the E coast of
Florida from 26.5N-29N between 79W-80.5W.

A 1019 mb surface low is near 32N59W. A stationary front extends
from the low SW to a 1016 mb low near 27N70W. The stationary front
continues from there to 22N76W. Scattered moderate convection is
seen within 90 nm of a line from 32N53W to 30N59W. Elsewhere,
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible near the
front.

Farther east, a cold front over the NE Atlantic enters the area
near 32N31W and extends SW to a 1018 mb low near 31N32W. A cold
front extends westward from the low to 30N37W to 31N43W, where it
becomes a stationary front, which continues to 32N47W to 33N53W to
the 1019 mb surface low mentioned in the previous paragraph.
Broken low clouds are seen and scattered showers are possible
within 120 nm south of the frontal boundary and extending north of
boundary to the north of the forecast area.

A NE-SW cold front over north Africa moves through Mauritania near
20N16W, dissipating to 19N20W. A surface trough is from 19N20W to
19N28W to 17N35W to 16N46W. Broken clouds and isolated showers are
possible within 90 nm of the trough axis.

Large long period NE swell from over the Atlantic will continue
to impact the waters east of the Lesser Antilles through Wed
afternoon. The stationary front over the western Atlantic will
dissipate tonight. The 1016 mb low near 27N70W will meander over
the region and then merge with a cold front that will reach from
near 31N69W to 28N77W Tue evening and from near 28N65W to 25N77W
Wed evening. A strong cold front will move southward over the
waters north and northeast of the Bahamas Thu through Fri night.
Strong high pressure building behind this front will support fresh
to strong northeast to east winds and building seas over these
waters Thu night through Fri night.

For additional information
please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
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