[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 180601
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
101 AM EST Sun Nov 18 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W, to 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from 06N20W to
04N32W, 04N38W, and to 04N50W. Isolated moderate to locally strong
rainshowers are from 11N southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Middle level to upper level SW wind flow spans the entire area.

A surface trough is in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, from
24N97W along the coast of Mexico, to 18N95W at the northern edge
of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Rainshowers are
possible from 26N southward from 90W westward.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico
from 25N northward.

A surface ridge will dominate the Gulf of Mexico waters, through
most of the period, supporting gentle to moderate anticyclonic
wind flow. Moderate to locally fresh SE wind flow will set up
across the western Gulf of Mexico on Sunday, ahead of the next
cold front that is forecast to reach the coast of Texas on Sunday
night. The front will move slowly across the NW Gulf of Mexico
through Monday night, reach from SE Louisiana to near Tampico,
Mexico by early on Tuesday morning, and then move toward the
coast of Texas from Tuesday night into Wednesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A dissipating stationary front continues from the 1013 mb low
pressure center that is near 26N70W, to SE Cuba and 20N78W. A
surface trough also extends from the 1013 mb low pressure center
to 24N71W and 22N73W in the SE Bahamas. A surface trough, the
remnants of an already-dissipated front, is along 18N83W 17N86W,
to the Gulf of Honduras. Widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong rainshowers are from 18N southward to Honduras between 83W
and Mexico and Belize.

The monsoon trough is along 08N/09N between 76W in Colombia and
83W along the southern coast of Panama. Upper level anticyclonic
wind flow spans the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. A middle
level inverted trough covers the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea.
700 mb NE wind flow also is moving across the SW corner of the
area. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 12N southward from
82W westward.

A surface trough, the remnants of a dissipating stationary front,
is just north of the Gulf of Honduras along 17N83W to the
southern coast of Belize near 16N88W. This elongated area of low
pressure continues to support scattered rainshowers with thunder,
as well as fresh to strong winds. The trough is forecast to
prevail in this region through Sun morning. Strong high pressure
building N of the area is supporting fresh to strong winds along
the coast of Colombia. These winds and associated seas will
prevail through early Tue as the center of high pressure shift
eastward across the NW Atlc waters.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N58W, to a 1013 mb low pressure
center that is near 26N70W. A dissipating stationary front
continues from the low pressure center, to SE Cuba and 20N78W.
A surface trough also extends from the 1013 mb low pressure center
to 24N71W and 22N73W in the SE Bahamas. Scattered moderate to strong
rainshowers are from 25N to 26N between 68W and 69W. Rainshowers
are possible elsewhere within 240 nm to 300 nm to the NW of the
line that passes through 32N55W to 25N67W, and then within 120 nm
to the NW of the line that runs from 25N67W to 21N75W.

A second cold front passes through 32N along 09W/10W, near the
coast of Morocco, to 30N10W, 26N15W, and curving to 22N28W. The
cold front is dissipating from 22N28W to 22N36W. Broken to
overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are within
120 nm on either side of the frontal boundary.

The current western Atlantic Ocean cold front is forecast to
stall on Sunday morning, and then weaken gradually, before
dissipating on Sunday night. Upper level diffluent wind flow is
supporting scattered moderate to strong rainshowers, that are
from 25N to 26N between 68W and 69W, just to the east of the 1013
mb low pressure center. Fresh to strong winds are within 120 nm on
either side of the cold front.

For additional information
please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net