[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 162359
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
659 PM EST Fri Nov 16 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from well over the interior of
Africa to the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 03N22W. The
ITCZ continues from that point to 03N40W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 05N south between 09W-15W. Elsewhere, a
band of scattered showers north of the ITCZ extends from 19N
south between the coast of Africa near Mauritania to 39W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

In the upper levels, a strong jetstream branch originating from
the eastern Pacific extends northeastward across the SE Gulf, to
the Yucatan Peninsula and to across south Florida. At the surface,
a 1025 mb high pressure dominates the weather regime in the wake
of the recent cold front passage. Cold air advection with the
northerly flow around the high center located over the northern
Gulf near 27N90W is resulting in broken to overcast stratocumulus
clouds across just about the entire sections of the eastern and
middle Gulf. Broken to overcast low clouds associated with a
surface trough are confined to the southwestern Gulf. Scattered
showers are possible with these clouds. Clear skies are present
generally to the north of 27N, and from 23N to 26N west of 92W.
A surface trough is present from 28N95W to 27N97W along the
Gulf coast of Texas. No significant precipitation is noted at
this time with the trough.

Isolated showers are over some parts of the Straits of Florida.
A rather tight pressure gradient between the high pressure over
the area and the recently departed cold front, now over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea, is bringing mainly fresh northerly
winds over the far southeastern Gulf and Straits of Florida.
Gentle to moderate winds in anticyclonic fashion around the 1025
mb high are elsewhere across the Gulf. Little change is expected
in the present synoptic pattern through Sat, then the high
pressure will begin to shift eastward on Sun in response to the
next cold front that will be moving across Texas. This front is
forecast to reach the Texas coast Sun night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The tail end of a cold front extends from central Cuba at 20N78W
to near the Cayman Islands, where it becomes stationary to the
coast of northeastern Honduras as of 21Z. Satellite imagery shows
mainly broken low clouds, with possible scattered showers along
and to the northeast of the front. Along the stationary front near
20N79W to 15N84W scattered moderate convection is noted 180 nm
behind the front which are being supported by a upper- level
disturbance riding along a strong jet stream branch that extends
northeastward from the eastern Pacific to across the northwestern
Caribbean Sea and Yucatan Peninsula. The strong northerly winds
are forecast to diminish to fresh winds on Sat as the pressure
gradient over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and northwestern
Caribbean slackens.

A surface trough, the remnants of a former tropical wave,
extends from northwest Colombia to just southwest of Jamaica.
Isolated showers are seen over Jamaica. Patches of low-level
moisture containing isolated showers are moving westward over the
remainder of the Caribbean to the east of the cold front.

The stationary front will gradually weaken through Sat night.
High pressure over the central Atlantic will build southward
through Sun bringing an increase to the trades across the eastern
and central Caribbean that is expected to last into early next
week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front, that is well defined in satellite imagery, is over
the western Atlantic along a position from 29N70W to 21N77W in
south central Cuba as of 21Z. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are along and within 100 nm east of the front north
of 30N. The front is forecast to become stationary from near
32N66W to the southeast Bahamas and eastern Cuba by Sat morning,
and slowly weaken through Mon.

A surface trough extends from near 25N73W to low pressure of 1012
mb near 24N74W and to just north of eastern Cuba. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are within 60 nm northeast and east of
the low. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are elsewhere along
and near the trough.

A cold front stalls from south-central Cuba to 18N81W to NE
Honduras. The front will gradually weaken through Sat morning when
it is forecast to transition to a surface trough that will move
to the eastern Yucatan Peninsula Sun morning. Fresh to strong
northerly winds will persist behind the front through tonight.
Strong and broad high pressure building north of the area behind
the front will support fresh to strong winds along the coast of
Colombia and along the coast of Venezuela beginning tonight and
continuing through Wed.

For additional information
please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
TORRES
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