[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161604
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1104 AM EST Fri Nov 16 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from well over the interior of
Africa to the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N12W to 04N20W. The
ITCZ continues from 04N20W to 02N30W to 03N42W to N Brazil near
02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is is along the monsoon
trough from 02N-09N between 14W-20W. Scattered moderate convection
is N of the ITCZ from 05N- 11N between 25W-45W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1025 mb high is centered over S Louisiana near 30N92W. Broken
to overcast low level stratocumulus clouds most of the Gulf of
Mexico S of 28N. The far N Gulf has mostly fair weather. 15-20 kt
N winds are noted over S Florida where the surface pressure
gradient remains strong. A good amount of cold air advection has
occurred over the Gulf. Temperatures are in the 30's over the N
Gulf States and in the 60's over S Florida.

In the upper levels, a strong jetstream remains from the Yucatan
Peninsula to central Florida.

Expect surface high pressure to prevail over the Gulf waters
through Mon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The tail end of a cold front extends from central Cuba at 23N79W
to NE Honduras at 15N84W. 20-25 kt N winds are noted W of front.
Scattered moderate convection is N of Honduras from 16N-19N
between 84W-87W.

A surface trough, the remnants of a tropical wave extends from
Jamaica to N Colombia. Isolated moderate convection is over NW
Venezuela.

In the SW Caribbean, scattered moderate convection is noted south
of 12N between 78W-85W, due to the eastern extent of the Eastern
Pacific monsoon trough.

In the upper levels, an upper level low is centered over
Hispaniola near 19N72W enhancing showers.

Expect the cold front to slowly move southeast, eventually
stalling from eastern Cuba to eastern Honduras on Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front over the W Atlantic extends from 32N74W to central
Cuba near 23N79W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm E of the
front N of 28N. 20kt NW winds are W of front, together with broken
low level stratocumulus clouds.

A surface trough is over the S Bahamas and E Cuba from 25N74W to
20N75W. Scattered showers are from 20N-24N between 72W- 75W.

A cold front has dipped into the central Atlantic waters from
32N36W to 29N47W, and dissipating to 30N58W. Another cold front
has traversed the Canary Islands and extends from 32N10W to
29N11W to 24N19W. Scattered showers are along the coast of
Morocco.

Expect the W Atlantic cold front to become stationary from 31N67W
to the SE Bahamas Sat morning. A trough ahead of the front along
75W will stall and dissipate through Sat.

For additional information
please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Aguirre
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