[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081723
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1223 PM EST Thu Nov 8 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gulf of Mexico Gale...

A cold front will extend over the Gulf of Mexico from 30N88W to
27N97W by Friday evening. This feature will enhance winds
reaching gale-force in the wake of the front, affecting the
northwest Gulf waters. Refer to the High Seas Forecast product
under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis from 11N22W to 02N24W,
moving W at 10 kt. This wave is noticeable in model diagnostics
at 700 mb and SSMI TPW imagery. Abundant moisture is also in its
environment. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the wave.

An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis from 14N45W to 04N47W,
moving W at 10 kt. SSMI TPW imagery shows a moisture area
associated with this wave. A 700 mb trough is also noted. Isolated
moderate convection is from 10N-13N between 43W-49W. Scattered
showers are within 90 nm of the remainder of the wave.

A Caribbean tropical wave is along 75W from 20N-09N, moving W at
10-15 kt. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the wave axis over
N Colombia.

A Bay of Campeche  tropical wave is along 92W from 21N-09N,
moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the
wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon extends from W Africa near 08N13W to 07N19W. The ITCZ
extends from 07N19W to 06N23W. The ITCZ resumes W of a tropical
wave near 06N26W to 08N45W. The ITCZ resumes west of another
tropical wave near 08N48W to 08N60W. Besides the convection and
showers associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is mostly N of the ITCZ from 06N-13N
between 33W-40W. This convection is mostly due, however, to upper
level diffluence.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from the Florida Panhandle to E Texas
along 29N. Scattered moderate convection is over the NE Gulf and
the Florida Panhandle from 29N-31N between 85W-87W.  Gulf coast N
of 29N between 84W- 93W. Scattered showers are elsewhere N of 27N.
The remainder of the Gulf of Mexico is under gentle to moderate
southeast to south flow with mostly fair weather.

High pressure ridging extending from the Atlantic to
the central Gulf will support gentle to moderate winds over the
basin through Thu night. A strong cold front will reach the
coast of Texas Fri morning, and move across the NW Gulf through
Fri afternoon. Fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas
are expected in the wake of the front, with frequent gusts to
gale force. The front is forecast to reach from the Florida Big
Bend area to near Tampico, Mexico by Fri night, and from near
Sarasota, Florida to 25N90W and to near Veracruz early Sat
morning, become stationary from near Fort Myers to near 24N90W to
the Bay of Campeche by late Sat, before lifting north and
dissipating Sun. Looking ahead, a second stronger front will move
off the Texas coast late Mon, possibly followed by strong gales
over the western Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are present over the Caribbean Sea. Refer to
the tropical wave section above for details. A surface trough is
along 66W from 10N-19N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is over the Leeward Islands N of 17N between 62W-66W.
Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the remainder of the
trough.

In the upper-levels, a trough axis extends from E Hispaniola to
the coast of Colombia. Significant upper-level moisture is over
the E Caribbean E of the trough axis, while strong subsidence is
over the W Caribbean W of the axis.

The surface trough north of Hispaniola along roughly 69W will
persist through the next several days, keeping ridging north of
the area fairly weak. This will maintain generally light to
moderate trade winds over the Caribbean and tropical north
Atlantic into Fri. Winds and seas will increase slightly starting
Sat over the tropical north Atlantic and eastern Caribbean, and by
Sun across the south-central Caribbean, in the Windward Passage,
and just south of Hispaniola, as the trough weakens and high
pressure builds north of the region.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Prefrontal widely scattered moderate convection is over the W
Atlantic N of 29N W of 75W. Further E, a surface trough is over
the W Atlantic from 29N68W to 22N70W. Scattered showers are seen
200 nm east of the trough axis N of 24N. A large 1029 mb high is
centered over the central Atlantic near 34N36W. An upper-level
low is centered over the W Atlantic near 25N64W. Scattered
moderate convection is E of the low from 21N-27N between 56W-63W.

A trough extending north of Hispaniola along roughly 69W will
maintain generally gentle to light winds across the basin with 3
to 5 ft NE swell in open waters persisting through mid week. A
cold front will move off the NE Florida coast Fri night then stall
from near Bermuda to central Florida by late Sat. The front will
lift northward early next week ahead of another front approaching
the region.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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