[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071722
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1222 PM EST Wed Nov 7 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 45W from 04N-15N, moving
W at 10-15 kt. SSMI TPW imagery shows a moisture area associated
with the wave. A 700 mb trough is also noted. Scattered moderate
convection is from 09N-13N between 41W-46W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 69W/70W from 09N-20N,
moving W at 10-15 kt. Isolated showers are within 120 nm of the
wave axis.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 83W from 09N-19N, moving W
at 10kt. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the wave axis.

A surface trough is along 61W from 09N-17N, moving W at 10 kt.
Widely scattered showers are from 10N-20N between 55W-65W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon extends from W Africa near 07N12W to 06N21W. The ITCZ
continues from 06N21W to 06N35W to 09N44W. The ITCZ continues W
of a tropical wave near 10N47W to 11N58W. Scattered moderate
convection is along the coast of W Africa from 02N-10N between
07W-22W. Scattered moderate convection is from 09N-13N between
48W-53W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from southern Georgia to E Texas along
31N. Isolated moderate convection is N of 28N between 83W-93W.
The remainder of the Gulf of Mexico has mostly fair weather. 10-15
KT SE to S surface flow is over the Gulf.

High pressure ridging extending from the Atlantic to
the central Gulf will support gentle to moderate winds over the
basin through Thu night. A strong cold front will reach the coast
of Texas Fri morning. The front will reach from near Apalachicola
to near 26N90W and to inland northeastern Mexico Fri evening,
from near Sarasota, Florida to 25N90W and to near Veracruz early
Sat, then become stationary from near Fort Myers to near 24N90W
to the Bay of Campeche by Sat evening. Strong NW to N winds and
building seas are expected behind this front. Winds could reach
minimal gale force Fri night through Sat night over the western
Gulf. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely to precede
the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves and a surface trough are over the Caribbean
Sea. See above. 10-15 kt easterly surface winds are noted.

In the upper-levels, a trough axis extends from E Hispaniola to to
E Panama. Significant upper-level moisture is over the E Caribbean
E of the trough axis producing scattered high clouds.

The combination of an upper trough over the central Caribbean and
a tropical wave moving across the eastern Caribbean will lead to
more scattered showers and thunderstorms over the northeastern
Caribbean through early Thu. Shower and thunderstorm activity may
produce gusty winds.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is over the W Atlantic from 29N65W to 21N67W.
Isolated showers are over the W Atlantic from N of 27N and W of
68W. A large 1029 mb high is centered over the central Atlantic
near 38N45W. An upper-level low is centered over the W Atlantic
near 25N63W. Isolated moderate convection is E of the low from
22N-26N between 55W-61W.

High pressure ridge extending from Bermuda to central Florida
will retreat eastward during the next few days in response to cold
fronts that will move off the United States eastern seaboard. The
first cold front is expected to be rather weak as it approaches
the far northwest section of the area before moving back north as
a warm front by late today. The second cold front is expected to
quickly move across the northwestern waters Fri night through Sat
before it approaches Bermuda and extend to near 31N72W and
stationary to near Port Canaveral by late Sat night. Strong high
pressure in the wake of the front will usher in fresh to strong
northeast winds accompanied by building seas.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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