[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281831
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
218 PM EDT Mon May 28 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Subtropical Storm Alberto as of 28/1800 UTC is
located near 29.8N 85.9W, or about 44 nautical miles S of Panama
City, FL. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb. The
maximum sustained wind speeds are 50 knots with gusts to 60
knots. Alberto is moving N at 6 knots. Isolated moderate
convection and scattered showers are near the center over the NE
Gulf of Mexico and N Florida from 26N-31N between 80W-88W. A
large band of scattered moderate to strong convection is well SE
of the center over the NW Caribbean, central Cuba, the Straits
of Florida, S Florida, and the N Bahamas, from 16N-26N between
77W- 83W. Alberto is expected to move inland, in the Florida
Panhandle, this afternoon or evening. Alberto is forecast to
move well inland into N Alabama on Tuesday, to S Indiana
Wednesday, and the Great Lakes region on Thursday. A couple of
brief tornadoes are possible today from northern Florida into
central and southern Georgia, southern South Carolina, and
southeastern Alabama. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 35W S of 14N moving W
at 15 kt. The wave shows up well on SSMI total precipitable
water imagery. Isolated moderate convection is within 120 NM of
the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W to
05N20W. The ITCZ continues from 05N20W to 02N33W. The ITCZ
continues W of the tropical wave near 02N37W to the coast of
Brazil near 00N50W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from
01N-06N between 13W-32W, and from 03S-05N between 37W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for information about
Subtropical Storm Alberto, currently in the northeastern Gulf of
Mexico.

Alberto has 34 kt winds within 90 nm of the center. Moderate to
fresh winds are in the central Gulf, and gentle to moderate
winds were in the western Gulf waters. Wave heights are reaching
18 feet near Alberto's center. 12 ft seas are within 75 nm of
the center. 6 ft seas are over the NE Gulf N of 26N and E of
90W. 2-5 ft seas are over the rest of the Gulf waters. Expect
for winds and seas to decrease following landfall today.

In contrast, the W Gulf W of 90W has fair weather.

In the upper levels, the W Gulf has NW flow due to ridging and
strong subsidence. The E Gulf has a sharp upper level trough
with axis along 88W over Alberto.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Outside of the Alberto rainband, isolated moderate convection is
over Central America from Honduras to Panama. Scattered moderate
to strong convection is inland over N Colombia. 5-15 kt
southerly winds are over the W Caribbean. 15-20 kt tradewinds
are over the central and E Caribbean E of 80W.

An upper level trough is over the NW Caribbean. A ridge is over
the central Caribbean. NE flow due to an upper level trough is
over the E Caribbean. Upper level moisture and scattered high
clouds covers the entire Caribbean.

High pressure in the central Atlantic will maintain
fresh to strong trade winds in the central Caribbean through the
week. The strongest winds are expected over the S central
Caribbean. A strong trough will move from the NW Caribbean to
the Yucatan Peninsula Wed through early Fri with associated
increasing winds and seas.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Besides the convection over the N Bahamas, scattered showers are
over the W Atlantic W of 74W. A 1025 mb high is centered over the
central Atlantic near 32N54W. Another 1029 mb high is centered
over the E Atlantic near 37N24W. Both systems are producing fair
weather.

The surface pressure gradient between Alberto and the Atlantic
surface ridge is producing 20-25 kt southerly winds W of 76W.
These winds will continue for the next 24-30 hours.

An upper level ridge is over the W Atlantic between 70W-80W. A
large upper level low is centered over the central Atlantic near
23N54W producing scattered showers. Zonal flow is over the E
Atlantic E of 40W.

Expect a cold front to reach the central Atlantic near 30N on
Thursday. The tail end of this front will then move E Friday and
Saturday with convection.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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