[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281743
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
143 PM EDT Mon May 28 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Subtropical Storm Alberto as of 28/1500 UTC is
located near 29.5N 85.8W, or about 44 nautical miles S of Panama
City, FL. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb. The
maximum sustained wind speeds are 55 knots with gusts to 65 knots.
Alberto is moving N at 6 knots. Isolated moderate convection and
scattered showers are near the center over the NE Gulf of Mexico
and N Florida from 26N-31N between 80W-88W. A large band of
scattered moderate to strong convection is well SE of the center
over the NW Caribbean, central Cuba, the Straits of Florida, S
Florida, and the N Bahamas, from 16N-26N between 77W-83W. Alberto
is expected to move inland, in the Florida Panhandle, this
afternoon or evening. Alberto is forecast to move well inland into
N Alabama on Tuesday, to S Indiana Wednesday, and the Great Lakes
region on Thursday. A couple of brief tornadoes are possible
today from northern Florida into central and southern Georgia,
southern South Carolina, and southeastern Alabama. See latest NHC
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 35W S of 14N moving W at
15 kt. The wave shows up well on SSMI total precipitable water
imagery. Isolated moderate convection is within 120 NM of the wave
axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W to
05N20W. The ITCZ continues from 05N20W to 02N33W. The ITCZ
continues W of the tropical wave near 02N37W to the coast of
Brazil near 00N50W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from
01N-06N between 13W-32W, and from 03S-05N between 37W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for information about
Subtropical Storm Alberto, currently in the northeastern Gulf of
Mexico.

Alberto has 34 kt winds within 90 nm of the center. Moderate to
fresh winds are in the central Gulf, and gentle to moderate winds
were in the western Gulf waters. Wave heights are reaching 18
feet near Alberto's center. 12 ft seas are within 75 nm of the
center. 6 ft seas are over the NE Gulf N of 26N and E of 90W. 2-5
ft seas are over the rest of the Gulf waters. Expect for winds
and seas to decrease following landfall today.

In contrast, the W Gulf W of 90W has fair weather.

In the upper levels, the W Gulf has NW flow due to ridging and
strong subsidence. The E Gulf has a sharp upper level trough with
axis along 88W over Alberto.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Outside of the Alberto rainband, isolated moderate convection is
over Central America from Honduras to Panama. Scattered moderate
to strong convection is inland over N Colombia. 5-15 kt southerly
winds are over the W Caribbean. 15-20 kt tradewinds are over the
central and E Caribbean E of 80W.

An upper level trough is over the NW Caribbean. A ridge is over
the central Caribbean. NE flow due to a trough is over the E
Caribbean. Upper level moisture and scattered high clouds covers
the entire Caribbean.

High pressure in the central Atlantic will maintain
fresh to strong trade winds in the central Caribbean through the
week. The strongest winds are expected over the S central
Caribbean. A strong trough will move from the NW Caribbean to
the Yucatan Peninsula Wed through early Fri with associated
increasing winds and seas.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Besides the convection over the N Bahamas, scattered showers are
over the W Atlantic W of 74W. A 1025 mb high is centered over the
central Atlantic near 32N54W. Another 1029 mb high is centered
over the E Atlantic near 37N24W. Both systems are producing fair
weather.

The surface pressure gradient between Alberto and the Atlantic
surface ridge is producing 20-25 kt southerly winds W of 76W.
These winds will continue for the next 24-30 hours.

An upper level ridge is over the W Atlantic between 70W-80W. A
large upper level low is centered over the central Atlantic near
23N54W producing scattered showers. Zonal flow is over the E
Atlantic E of 40W.

Expect a cold front to reach the central Atlantic near 30N on
Thursday. The tail end of this front will then move E Friday and
Saturday with convection.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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