[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281213
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
813 AM EDT Mon May 28 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Subtropical Storm Alberto as of 28/1200 UTC, is
located near 29.0N 86.0W, or about 87 nautical miles SSE of
Destin, FL. The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb. The
maximum sustained wind speeds are 55 knots with gusts to 65
knots. Alberto is moving NW at 5 knots. Isolated moderate
convection with scattered showers are near the center over the NE
Gulf of Mexico from 25N-31N between 83W-89W. A large band of
scattered moderate to strong convection is E of the center over
the NW Caribbean, central Cuba, the Straits of Florida, S Florida,
and the N Bahamas, from 16N-27N between 77W-84W. Alberto is
expected to move inland, in the Florida Panhandle, this afternoon
or evening. Alberto is forecast to move well inland into the
Tennessee Valley on Tuesday and into the Ohio Valley and Great
Lakes region on Wednesday and Thursday. A couple of brief
tornadoes are possible today from northern Florida into central
and southern Georgia, southern South Carolina, and southeastern
Alabama. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 30W from 12N southward,
moving westward 10 to 15 knots. The wave shows up well in lower
level precipitable water imagery. Isolated moderate convection is
within 120 NM of the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 10N14W to 05N20W to 03N28W. The ITCZ continues from 02N32W
to 00N40W to the coast of Brazil near 00N50W. Widely csattered
moderate convection is from 02N-07N between 14W-26W, and from
03S-05N between 33W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for information about
Subtropical Storm Alberto, currently in the northeastern Gulf of
Mexico.

Scatterometer data is showing fresh to strong winds in the east
Gulf near Alberto. Moderate to fresh winds are in the central
Gulf, and gentle to moderate winds were in the western Gulf
waters. The wave heights are reaching 17 feet near Alberto's
center, are from 6 feet and higher elsewhere N of 25N and E of
90W, and 2-3 ft for the rest of the Gulf waters. Expect for winds
and seas to decrease following landfall today.

In contrast, the W Gulf W of 90W has fair weather.

In the upper levels, the W Gulf has NW flow due to ridging and
strong Subsidence. The E Gulf has a sharp upper level trough with
axis along 88W is over Alberto.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Outside of the Alberto rainband, isolated moderate convection is
over Central America from Honduras to Panama. Scattered moderate
to strong convection is inland over N Colombia. 15-20 kt
tradewinds are over the central and E Caribbean E of 80W.

An upper level trough is over the NW Caribbean. A ridge is over
the central Caribbean. NE flow due to a trough is over the E
Caribbean.

High pressure in the central Atlantic Ocean will maintain
fresh to strong trade winds in the central Caribbean Sea through
the week. The strongest winds are expected in the S central
Caribbean Sea. A strong trough will move from the NW Caribbean
Sea to the Yucatan Peninsula from Wednesday through early
Friday, with associated increasing winds and seas.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The surface pressure gradient between Subtropical Storm Alberto
and the Atlantic surface ridge may support increasing wind speeds
to near gale-force in the Florida coastal and offshore waters
through tonight.

An upper level trough extends from a 25N52W cyclonic circulation
center, to 18N58W, toward Barbados. Rainshowers are possible from
15N to 30N between 45W and 60W.

A surface ridge passes through 32N30W, to 30N48W, to a 1025 mb
high pressure center that is near 33N57W, continuing beyond
35N77W and the coast of North Carolina.

A tight surface pressure gradient will persist through Monday, as
Subtropical Storm Alberto moves through the eastern Gulf of
Mexico, while central Atlantic ridging lingers. Winds will be
near gale W of 79W and strong between 77W and 79W through
tonight. Conditions will improve on Tuesday, as the pressure
gradient weakens. It is possible that a cold front or a frontal
trough may drop into the NE waters from Wednesday night through
Friday night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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