[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 280718 AAA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...UPDATED
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
145 AM EDT Mon May 28 2018

UPDATED FOR THE 28/0600 ALBERTO DATA

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Subtropical Storm Alberto as of 28/0600 UTC, is
located near 28.6N 86.1W, or about 100 nautical miles SSW of
Panama City, FL. The estimated minimum central pressure is 990
mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 55 knots with gusts to
65 knots. Alberto is moving NW, or 315 degrees, 08 knots.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers extend from 21N to 26N between 77W and 83W, from
Cuba to the Bahamas and the Florida Keys. isolated moderate
rainshowers cover the rest of the area that extends from 20N
northward between 70W in the Atlantic Ocean and 90W in the Gulf
of Mexico. This precipitation covers parts of the NW Caribbean
Sea, Cuba and the Bahamas, Florida and the Gulf of Mexico and
adjacent waters of the Atlantic Ocean. Alberto is expected to
move inland, in the Florida Panhandle, by Monday afternoon.
Alberto will weaken after the landfall. Public Advisories about
Subtropical Storm Alberto are being listed under the WMO header
WTNT31 KNHC, and under the AWIPS header MIATCPAT1. The
Forecast/Advisories about Subtropical Storm Alberto are being
listed under the WMO header WTNT21 KNHC, and under the AWIPS
header MIATCMAT1.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 29W from 12N southward,
moving westward 10 to 15 knots. The wave shows up well in lower
level precipitable water imagery. Precipitation: isolated
moderate rainshowers are from 06N southward between 27W and 32W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 10N14W, to 06N18W and 04N26W. The ITCZ continues from
03N30W, to 01N37W, to the Equator along 43W. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are to the south
of the line 08N13W 07N35W 05N51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for information about
Subtropical Storm Alberto, currently in the northeastern Gulf of
Mexico.

A NW-to-SE oriented upper level trough passes through Louisiana,
beyond the Yucatan Channel, into the NW corner of the Caribbean
Sea, and into Central America.

Scatterometer data was showing fresh to strong winds in the east
Gulf near Alberto. moderate to fresh winds were in the central
Gulf, and gentle to moderate winds were in the western Gulf
waters. The wave heights were reaching 17 feet near Alberto's
center, from 6 feet and higher elsewhere from 25N northward from
90W eastward, and 2-3 ft for the rest of the Gulf waters. Expect
for winds and seas to decrease following landfall on Monday.

Subtropical Storm Alberto near 28.5N 85.8W 991 mb at 11 PM EDT
moving NW at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds 55 kt gusts 65 kt.
Alberto will move to 29.6N 86.2W on Monday morning, then will be
inland near 31.2N 86.6W on Monday evening. The winds and the seas
will start to decrease after the storm moves inland, with ridging
building in from the Atlantic Ocean. A surface trough will impact
the southern waters from Wednesday through Friday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A NW-to-SE oriented upper level trough passes through Louisiana,
beyond the Yucatan Channel, into the NW corner of the Caribbean
Sea, and into Central America. Precipitation: scattered to
numerous strong rainshowers are in eastern Honduras and NE
Nicaragua, and in the coastal areas of east central Nicaragua.
isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are elsewhere
from Jamaica westward.

Scatterometer data has been showing moderate to fresh easterly
winds across most of the basin except west of 80W, where gentle
to moderate southerly winds were prevailing. Wave heights range
from 4 to 6 feet in the far east and west Caribbean Sea, to 5 to
7 feet sea heights will continue between 69W and 74W.

High pressure in the central Atlantic Ocean will maintain
fresh to strong trade winds in the central Caribbean Sea through
the week. The strongest winds are expected in the S central
Caribbean Sea. A strong trough will move from the NW Caribbean
Sea to the Yucatan Peninsula from Wednesday through early
Friday, with associated increasing winds and seas.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The surface pressure gradient between Subtropical Storm Alberto
and the Atlantic surface ridge may support increasing wind speeds
to near gale-force in the Florida coastal and offshore waters
through tonight.

An upper level trough extends from a 25N52W cyclonic circulation
center, to 18N58W, toward Barbados. Rainshowers are possible from
15N to 30N between 45W and 60W.

A surface ridge passes through 32N30W, to 30N48W, to a 1025 mb
high pressure center that is near 33N57W, continuing beyond
35N77W and the coast of North Carolina.

A tight surface pressure gradient will persist through Monday, as
Subtropical Storm Alberto moves through the eastern Gulf of
Mexico, while central Atlantic ridging lingers. Winds will be
near gale W of 79W and strong between 77W and 79W through
tonight. Conditions will improve on Tuesday, as the pressure
gradient weakens. It is possible that a cold front or a frontal
trough may drop into the NE waters from Wednesday night through
Friday night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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