[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271205
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT Sun May 27 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Subtropical Storm Alberto, at 27/1200 UTC, is near
26.3N 84.4W, or about 195 km WSW of the Dry Tortugas, and about
645 km S of Apalachicola Florida. The estimated minimum central
pressure is 997 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 40
knots with gusts to 50 knots. It is moving N, 13 knots.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers
cover the area that extends from 20N to 29N between 76W and 86W,
from Cuba and its surrounding waters to the Bahamas, to parts of
Florida and all the surrounding waters. The PUBLIC ADVISORIES
about Subtropical Storm Alberto are being listed under the WMO
header WTNT31 KNHC, and under the AWIPS header MIATCPAT1. The
FORECAST/ADVISORIES about Subtropical Storm Alberto are being
listed under the WMO header WTNT21 KNHC, and under the AWIPS
header MIATCMAT1.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave extends its axis from 13N24W to
00N25W, moving W at 10 kt. The wave shows up well in lower level
precipitable water imagery. Scattered showers are noted along and
the wave axis mainly south of 05N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 09N13W to 05N22W. The ITCZ continues from 04N25W to the
Equator along 38W, to 01S37W, and 01S46W along the coast of
Brazil. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong
rainshowers are from 10W eastward, and to the south of the line
08N16W 05N30W 04N51W. scattered to numerous strong rainshowers
have reached the coastal waters of Sierra Leone and Liberia,
possibly with the next tropical wave that still is inland.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for information about
Subtropical Storm Alberto, in the SE corner of the Gulf of Mexico.

A NW-to-SE oriented upper level trough passes through Louisiana,
beyond the Yucatan Channel, into the NW corner of the Caribbean
Sea.

Subtropical Storm Alberto is expected to move to 28.6N 85.2W by
tonight, 30.0N 86.0W Monday afternoon, and inland to 31.7N 86.3W
early Tuesday. The winds and the sea heights will start to
decrease following landfall.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for information about
Subtropical Storm Alberto, in the SE corner of the Gulf of Mexico.

An upper level trough extends from north central Gulf of Mexico,
across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, into the NW corner of the
Caribbean Sea. Scattered to numerous strong rainshowers cover the
coastal plains and coastal waters from NE Honduras to NE Costa
Rica, and in northern sections of Colombia.

The winds and the sea heights will continue to decrease in the
western Caribbean Sea, given that Alberto is moving out of the
area more and more. High pressure in the central Atlantic Ocean
will maintain fresh to strong trade winds in the central Caribbean
Sea through the early part of the week. The fastest wind speeds
are expected along the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of
Venezuela.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for information about
Subtropical Storm Alberto, in the SE corner of the Gulf of Mexico.
The surface pressure gradient between Subtropical Storm Alberto
and the Atlantic Ocean surface ridge may support increasing wind
speeds to near gale force in the Florida coastal and offshore
waters this afternoon and tonight.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area that extends from
18N northward between 50W and 70W, with an upper level trough.
Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate rainshowers
are from 18N northward between 50W and 66W.

A surface ridge extends across the basin from a 1022 mb high
pressure center that is near 32N59W, to a 1026 mb high near
37N31W.

Moderate to fresh trade winds are expected S of 25N through
Monday, pulsing to fresh to strong offshore of northern Hispaniola
during the afternoon through evening hours each day. SE to S
winds will increase to fresh to locally strong W of 77W, from
tonight through Sunday night, as the pressure gradient tightens
between Subtropical Storm Alberto in the Gulf of Mexico and high
pressure across the area. Those conditions should improve by
Tuesday, as the pressure gradient weakens. It is possible that a
cold front or a frontal trough may drop into the NE waters from
Wednesday through Thursday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA/MT
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