[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270002
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
802 PM EDT Sat May 26 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Subtropical Storm Alberto, at 26/2100 UTC, is near
23.3N 85.1W, or about 275 km SW of the Dry Tortugas, and about
155 km N of the western tip of Cuba. The estimated minimum
central pressure is 999 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are
35 knots with gusts to 45 knots. It is moving northward, or 10
degrees, 11 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong rainshowers cover the area that extends from 20N
to 25N between 75W and 85W, from Cuba and its surrounding waters
to the Bahamas, to parts of Florida and all the surrounding waters.
isolated to widely scattered moderate rainshowers cover the rest
of the areas from 25N to 30N between 75W and 87W, across Florida,
the Bahamas and Atlantic Ocean, the Gulf of Mexico, and parts of
the Gulf coast of the U.S.A. The PUBLIC ADVISORIES about
Subtropical Storm Alberto are being listed under the WMO header
WTNT31 KNHC, and under the AWIPS header MIATCPAT1. The
FORECAST/ADVISORIES about Subtropical Storm Alberto are being
listed under the WMO header WTNT21 KNHC, and under the AWIPS
header MIATCMAT1.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 21W/23W south of 15N.
The wave shows up well in lower level precipitable water imagery.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers
cover the area that extends from 06N southward between 20W and
30W in the ITCZ.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 11N15W to 05N21W. The ITCZ continues from 05N21W to 02N27W,
crossing the Equator along 34W, to 01S37W, and 01S46W along the
coast of Brazil. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong rainshowers are from 10W eastward, and within 210 nm on
either side of the line 07N12W 03N25W, to the Equator along 36W,
and along the Equator along 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for information about
Subtropical Storm Alberto, in the SE corner of the Gulf of Mexico.

An sharp negatively tilted upper level trough extends from the
lower Mississippi Valley to over the Yucatan Channel. Scattered
convection remains active over the eastern Gulf, on the side of
this trough, with deep layer dry air west of the trough axis. Seas
are likely 6 to 9 ft over the southeast Gulf and building ahead of
Alberto's approach. Moderate to fresh SE winds are noted over the
northeast Gulf, with 3 to 5 ft seas. Light winds with 1 to 3 ft
seas are noted over the western Gulf. Fresh southerly flow will
persist over the eastern Gulf through mid week in the wake of
Alberto.

Subtropical Storm Alberto near 23.3N 85.1W 999 mb at
5 PM EDT moving N at 11 kt. Maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45
kt. Alberto will move to 25.4N 84.9W Sun morning...27.5N 85.3W
Sun afternoon...28.9N 86.3W Mon morning...30.0N 87.0W Mon
afternoon...and inland to 33.6N 87.9W Tue afternoon. Winds and
seas will start to decrease thereafter.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for information about
Subtropical Storm Alberto, in the SE corner of the Gulf of Mexico.

An upper level trough extends from north central Gulf of Mexico,
across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, into the NW corner of the
Caribbean Sea. Scattered to numerous strong rainshowers cover the
coastal plains and coastal waters from NE Honduras to NE Costa
Rica, and in northern sections of Colombia.

The winds and the sea heights will continue to decrease in the
western Caribbean Sea, given that Alberto is moving out of the
area more and more. The winds and the sea heights will continue
to decrease in the western Caribbean Sea. High pressure in the
central Atlantic Ocean will maintain fresh to strong trade winds
in the central Caribbean Sea through early next week, with the
strongest winds along the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of
Venezuela.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for information about
Subtropical Storm Alberto, in the SE corner of the Gulf of Mexico.

Moderate to fresh trade winds are expected S of 25N through
Monday, pulsing to fresh to strong offshore of northern Hispaniola
during the afternoon through evening hours each day. SE to S
winds will increase to fresh to locally strong W of 77W, from
tonight through Sunday night, as the pressure gradient tightens
between Subtropical Storm Alberto in the Gulf of Mexico and high
pressure across the area. Those conditions should improve by
Tuesday, as the pressure gradient weakens.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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