[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250531
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
131 AM EDT Fri May 25 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1011 mb low near 20N88W is drifting slowly northward over the
eastern Yucatan Peninsula. The low is producing widespread, but
disorganized, shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental
conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development,
and a subtropical or tropical depression or storm is likely to
form during the weekend over the eastern or central Gulf of
Mexico. Please see high seas forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service for information on gale warnings associated with
this system. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the disturbance this afternoon, if
necessary. Locally heavy rainfall is forecast across western Cuba
and over much of Florida and the northern Gulf Coast into early
next week. In addition, the threat of rip currents will steadily
increase along the Gulf coast from Florida westward to Louisiana
over the Memorial Day weekend. For more information on these
threats, please see products issued by your local weather office.
The chance for tropical cyclone formation during the next 48
hours is high. The chance for tropical cyclone formation during
the next 5 days is high.

A gale warning has been issued in the meanwhile for the Gulf of
Mexico starting 1200 UTC Sat May 26 within 100 nm E semicircle of
1006 mb low centered near 22.5N87W with 30 to 35 kt winds, and
seas 9 to 12 ft.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along the coast of South America with axis
extending from 11N50W to 00N50W, moving west at 10-15 knots. The
wave is in a moderate moist environment that is supporting
isolated showers within 150 nm either side of the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea, Africa near
10N14W and continues to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W to
00N30W to 00N48W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is along the coast of W Africa from 02N-08N between
10W-20W. Isolated moderate convection is within 180 nm either
side of the ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends N from the Yucatan Peninsula Low near
20N88W to the E Gulf of Mexico near 26N87W. Isolated moderate
convection is within 120 nm of the trough. In addition, radar
imagery shows scattered showers over the Straits of Florida,
portions of Florida, and the N Gulf coast E of Texas. Mostly fair
weather is over the W Gulf. Light to gentle winds are in the
western half of the basin with seas in the range of 2 to 3 ft.

The low over the Yucatan peninsula is expected to develop into a
a tropical cyclone as it moves slowly northward through Mon. Gale
conditions and seas around 12 ft are now expected starting Sat in
the SE Gulf, spreading northward and reaching the N central Gulf
through Mon. Winds and seas will diminish on Tue. Please read the
Special Features section above.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

15-20 kt tradewinds are over the E Caribbean with mostly fair
weather. The W Caribbean W of 80W has very moist conditions. The
NW Caribbean has scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
from 15N-21N between 80W-89W. Scattered moderate convection is
inland over Central America from S Guatemala to Panama. Similar
convection is over N Colombia.

The surface low over the Yucatan peninsula will drift northward
into the Gulf of Mexico Fri. Fresh to locally strong SE winds and
peak seas near 8 ft are expected the NW Caribbean Fri and Sat as
this low potentially develops into a tropical cyclone. High
pressure in the central Atlc will maintain fresh to strong trade
winds in the Caribbean through Sat with strongest winds along the
coast of Colombia before weakening somewhat on Sun through early
next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered showers are over the Bahamas. The remainder of the
Atlantic is under the influence of a broad surface ridge centered
by a 1029 mb high near 32N36W. This high is supporting moderate
winds in the Bahamas Bank and Atlantic passages to the Caribbean.

Over the W Atlantic moderate to fresh tradewinds are expected S
of 27N through Monday. SE to S winds will increase to fresh to
locally strong W of 77W Sat night through Sun night as developing
low pres in the Gulf of Mexico tightens the pressure gradient.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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