[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241207
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT Thu May 24 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A broad, stationary surface low pressure system centered over
the southeastern Yucatan Peninsula is gradually becoming better
defined.
Although showers and thunderstorms, along with strong gusty
winds, are confined primarily to the adjacent waters of the
northwestern Caribbean Sea, gradual development of this system
is expected during the next couple of days as it drifts
northward near the Yucatan Peninsula.  Environmental conditions
are forecast to become more conducive for development through
early next week, and a subtropical or tropical depression is
likely to form by late Saturday over the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico.  Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is
forecast across western Cuba and over much of Florida and the
northern Gulf Coast into early next week. In addition, the
threat of rip currents will steadily increase along the Gulf
coast from Florida westward to Louisiana over Memorial Day
weekend. The chance for tropical cyclone formation during the
next 48 hours is medium. The chance for tropical cyclone
formation during the next 5 days is high.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 47W from 0N to 10N moving westward at
10 to 15 knots. This wave is associated with a sharp 700 mb
trough. Scattered showers are within 290 nm west of the wave
axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N15W to 04N20W. The ITCZ
continues from 04N20W to 00N33W to 01N46W. The ITCZ continues W
of the tropical wave from 01N48W to the coast of Brazil near
00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is within 190 nm N of the
ITCZ between 20W-30W, within 290 nm S of the ITCZ W of 28W and
from 01N-07N between 04W-20W.

...DISCUSSION

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from an Atlantic 1027 mb high centered
near 32N40W to the NE Gulf of Mexico. 10-15 knot E to SE winds
are over the Gulf. An upper level trough is over the Gulf of
Mexico with axis along 90W. Upper level moisture is over the
Gulf, except over the SW Gulf where strong subsidence is noted.
Isolated moderate convection is over the central Gulf from 24N-
27N between 85W-91W. More isolated moderate convection is over
the NW Gulf from 25N-31N between 91W-95W.

A broad surface low over the Yucatan peninsula is expected to
intensify as it moves slowly northward toward southern Louisiana
through Sun. Strong winds and building seas are expected east of
the low center.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section above. A 1010 mb low is
centered over the Yucatan Peninsula near 19N88W drifting NW.
Scattered moderate convection is over most of the Yucatan
Peninsula. Scattered moderate convection is over the NW
Caribbean Sea from 18N-22N between 82W-88W. Widely scattered
moderate convection is inland over Central America from
Quatemala to Panama. Elsewhere, 15-20 knot tradewinds are over
the central and E Caribbean.

An upper level trough is over the NW Caribbean N of 15N and W of
80W. An upper level ridge is over the remainder of the Caribbean.
Upper level moisture is over the Caribbean, except over the
Leeward and Windward Islands where strong subsidence is noted.

High pressure in the central Atlantic will maintain fresh to
locally strong trade winds in the Caribbean into Sat, with the
strongest winds along the coast of Colombia. A broad surface low
over the Yucatan peninsula will drift northward into the Gulf of
Mexico through Fri. Fresh SE winds and building seas are
expected the NW Caribbean Fri and Sat as the low develops.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered showers are over the Bahamas. A 1029 mb high is
centered over the central Atlantic near 32N39W producing fair
weather.

A large upper level low is centered NE of the Leeward Islands
near 25N52W. Scattered showers are within 180 nm of the low.

Moderate to fresh trade winds are expected over the W Atlantic
south of 27N through Sat. An area of low pressure developing in
the Gulf of Mexico will increase SE winds west of 77W to include
the N Bahamas this weekend.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa/Ramos
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