[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240454
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1254 AM EDT Thu May 24 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A broad surface low centered over the southeastern Yucatan
Peninsula has become better defined since yesterday, and it
continues to produce a large area of cloudiness and showers
extending from the northwestern Caribbean Sea across Cuba into the
Florida Straits. Continued slow development of this system is
possible during the next couple of days as it drifts northward
near the Yucatan Peninsula. Thereafter, environmental conditions
are forecast to become more conducive for development, and a
subtropical or tropical depression is likely to form this weekend
over the eastern or central Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rainfall is possible across western
Cuba and the Cayman Islands during the next few days, and over
much of Florida and the northern Gulf Coast during the weekend.
For more information on the heavy rain threat, please see products
issued by your local weather office. The chance for tropical
cyclone formation during the next 48 hours is low. The chance for
tropical cyclone formation during the next 5 days, on the other
hand, is high.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 46W S of 10N moving westward at 10 to 15
knots. This wave is embedded in a sharp 700 mb trough. Scattered
showers are within 120 nm of the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 10N14W to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W to 00N28W
to 01N45W. The ITCZ continues W of the tropical wave from 01N47W
to the coast of Brazil near 00N50W. Isolated moderate convection
is from 00N-06N between 10W-27W. Widely scattered moderate
convection is from 05S-03N between 27W-32W.

...DISCUSSION

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from an Atlantic 1029 mb high centered
near 32N39W to the NE Gulf of Mexico. 10-15 knot E to SE winds
are over the Gulf. An upper level trough is over the Gulf of
Mexico with axis along 90W. Upper level moisture is over the Gulf,
except over the SW Gulf where strong subsidence is noted.
Isolated moderate convection is over the central Gulf from 24N-27N
between 85W-91W. More isolated moderate convection is over the NW
Gulf from 25N-31N between 91W-95W.

A broad surface low over the Yucatan peninsula is
expected to intensify as it moves slowly northward toward
southern Louisiana through Sun. Strong winds and building seas
are expected east of the low center.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section above. A 1010 mb low is
centered over the Yucatan Peninsula near 19N88W drifting NW.
Scattered moderate convection is over most of the Yucatan
Peninsula. Scattered moderate convection is over the NW Caribbean
Sea from 18N-22N between 82W-88W. Widely scattered moderate
convection is inland over Central America from Quatemala to
Panama. Elsewhere, 15-20 knot tradewinds are over the central and
E Caribbean.

An upper level trough is over the NW Caribbean N of 15N and W of
80W. An upper level ridge is over the remainder of the Caribbean.
Upper level moisture is over the Caribbean, except over the
Leeward and Windward Islands where strong subsidence is noted.

High pressure in the central Atlantic will maintain
fresh to locally strong trade winds in the Caribbean into Sat,
with the strongest winds along the coast of Colombia. A broad
surface low over the Yucatan peninsula will drift northward into
the Gulf of Mexico through Fri. Fresh SE winds and building seas
are expected the NW Caribbean Fri and Sat as the low develops.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered showers are over the Bahamas. A 1029 mb high is
centered over the central Atlantic near 32N39W producing fair
weather.

A large upper level low is centered NE of the Leeward Islands
near 25N52W. Scattered showers are within 180 nm of the low.

Moderate to fresh trade winds are expected over the W Atlantic
south of 27N through Sat. An area of low pressure developing in
the Gulf of Mexico will increase SE winds west of 77W to include
the N Bahamas this weekend.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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