[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 200501
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
101 AM EDT Sun May 20 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0400 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

An upper-level trough extends across the eastern Gulf of Mexico
and western Caribbean, with diffluent flow aloft prevailing
across the Florida Peninsula and the western Atlantic and
Caribbean, to the east of the upper trough's axis. This pattern
is drawing deep tropical moisture northward from the SW Caribbean
between 76W and 83W and is supporting numerous moderate and
isolated strong convection along this corridor. This activity is
expected to continue through early this upcoming week, with heavy
rainfall and flooding possible over the land areas affected.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave has an axis that extends from
13N52W to 03N54W, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. This wave has slowed
down its forward motion over the past 24 hours and is expected to
become diffuse east of the Caribbean over the next couple of days.
Numerous showers and isolated moderate convection are within 300
nm of either side of the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea-
Bissau near 12N16W to 03N22W. The ITCZ continues from 03N22W to
01N35W to the Brazil coast near 00N49W. Besides the convection
associated with the tropical wave, isolated moderate convection
is from 01N to 05N between 12W and 51W.

...DISCUSSION

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper-level trough prevails across the eastern Gulf, with an
axis along 85W. Diffluent flow aloft east of the trough is
bringing tropical moisture over the far east Gulf and western
Atlantic waters affecting the Florida Peninsula and Florida
Straits/Keys. Please refer to the special features section for
more details. A surface trough is embedded within this convection,
extending from 26N80W to 23N82W, as indicated by an overnight
scatterometer pass. A weak ridge axis extends across the remainder
of the basin along 30N producing mainly gentle to moderate winds.

The surface trough is expected move into the eastern Gulf through
Monday. The upper-level trough over the eastern Gulf will remain
nearly stationary through the first half of this upcoming week,
supporting ongoing convection over the eastern Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper-level trough extends over the eastern Gulf of mexico and
western Caribbean. Upper-level diffluence on the eastern side of
this trough is supporting scattered to numerous moderate
convection across the Caribbean waters between 76W and 83W. Broad
high pressure over the subtropical Atlantic continues to support
moderate to fresh tradewinds over most of the basin, except fresh
to strong winds over the central Caribbean. Wave heights of 8 to
10 ft persist over the central Caribbean as confirmed by a recent
satellite altimeter pass and current buoy data.

Over the next couple of days, the upper-level trough will remain
in place enhancing shower and thunderstorm activity over the
western Caribbean. A surface trough is expected to develop later
today underneath this convection and drift westward. The surface
ridging pattern over the Atlantic will persist, keeping a similar
wind profile in place across the basin into the middle of this
upcoming week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Diffluent flow aloft to the east of an upper-level trough
currently over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, combined with a surface
trough extending just offshore of east-central Florida is
supporting scattered to numerous moderate convection across
Florida, the Bahamas, and Atlantic waters mainly west of 76W. High
pressure centered over the N Central Atlantic spans the Atlantic
waters east of Florida to the northwest African coast. Surface
observations and latest scatterometer data indicate prevailing
fresh to locally strong southeast winds over a portion of the
Bahamas as well as within a few hundred miles N of Hispaniola. A
recent altimeter pass indicates wave heights of 8 to 9 ft over
these waters outside of the Bahamas. Moderate to fresh tradewinds
are occurring elsewhere across the central and western Atlantic
south of 27N. Gentle to moderate winds cover the central Atlantic
north of 27N. Moderate to occasionally fresh north to northeast
winds are occurring over the eastern Atlantic.

The overall pattern will change little through Monday. Therefore,
the chances for heavy rainfall over the Florida Peninsula,
Bahamas, and western Atlantic will continue.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Latto
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