[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 170519
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
119 AM EDT Thu May 17 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave has an axis that extends from
11N38W to 00N40W, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. This wave appears as
poleward surge in mid level moisture and troughing at 700 mb.
Scattered moderate convection is from 01S to 07N between 30W and
44W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 10N14W to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W to 01N38W,
then resumes W of the tropical wave near 00N42W and continues to
the coast of N Brazil near 00N50W. Besides the convection
associated with the tropical wave, scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is from 01N to 06N between 05W and 16W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 00N to 04N between 20W and
30W.

...DISCUSSION

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends from a 1010 mb low over the Florida
Panhandle near 31N85W to 25N87W. This surface feature is
interacting with an upper trough with an axis over the eastern
Gulf to produce scattered to numerous showers and embedded
thunderstorms east of a line from 29N89W to 22N86W, including the
Florida Peninsula, Florida Straits, and western Cuba. Moderate to
fresh SW winds are over the NE Gulf, N of 27N and to the east of
the surface trough. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are S of
27N over the eastern Gulf. A weak 1013 mb high center is over the
western Gulf near 26N94W and is supporting gentle to moderate
anticyclonic flow over the central and western Gulf, except
moderate to fresh winds near the Texas coast, where a tighter
pressure gradient exists due to a cold front over interior east
Texas.

The low over the Florida panhandle will move NE of the region by
Friday with the trailing surface trough gradually weakening. The
upper trough over the eastern Gulf will continue to be the focus
for shower and thunderstorm activity, mainly over the far eastern
Gulf, where deeper moisture and better lift will be present.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper trough extends over the Yucatan Peninsula and northern
portions of central America. Upper level diffluence on the eastern
side of this trough is supporting scattered moderate convection
and embedded thunderstorms from 11N to 22N W of 80W, except the
Yucatan Channel, where drier air is inhibiting thunderstorm
activity. Broad high pressure over the subtropical Atlantic
supports moderate to fresh tradewinds over the majority of the
Caribbean basin this morning, except for light winds over the SW
Caribbean, and strong winds over the S Central Caribbean. Wave
heights near 10 ft are occurring under the stronger winds as
confirmed by a recent satellite altimeter pass.

Over the next couple of days the upper trough will remain in place
which will keep an enhancement of shower and thunderstorm activity
over the western Caribbean. The ridging pattern over the Atlantic
will persist, keeping a similar wind profile in place across the
Caribbean into the upcoming weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper trough and surface trough over the eastern Gulf of Mexico
is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms W of 76W,
including the central and NW Bahamas. An expansive area of high
pressure centered from just E of Bermuda to the Azores spans the
remainder of the western, central, and eastern Atlantic. The
pressure gradient between this high and lower pressures in the
Caribbean and eastern Gulf of Mexico supports fresh to locally
strong E to SE winds along the northern coast of Hispaniola and E
of the the northern Florida coast. Moderate to fresh tradewinds
are occurring across the central Atlantic S of 27N. Gentle to
moderate winds cover the central Atlantic N of 27N. Moderate NE
winds are occurring over the eastern Atlantic.

The overall pattern will change little over the next few days,
with ongoing convection possible W of 75W and strong winds
expected to continue along the northern coast of Hispaniola, and
at times eastern Cuba.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Latto
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