[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 162358
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
758 PM EDT Wed May 16 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 36W/37W S of 10N moving W at 10-15 kt.
Widely scattered moderate convection is from 00N-05N between 32W-
41W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 09N13W to 04N16W. The ITCZ continues from 04N16W to 02N37W
to the coast of Brazil near 01N51W. Besides the convection
associated with the tropical wave mentioned above, scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is from 01N to 07N between 06W
and 14W. Widely scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm N
of the ITCZ axis between 22W and 32W.

...DISCUSSION

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends from the Florida Panhandle near 31N35W
to an embedded 1011 mb low near 29.5N85W to 25N88W. Patches of
scattered moderate convection are over the E Gulf of Mexico and W
Cuba between 81W-85W. Scattered showers are elsewhere within 60
nm of the trough, and over central and south Florida. A 1015 mb
high is centered over the NW Gulf near 26N94W producing fair
weather.

In the upper levels, an upper level ridge is over the W Gulf W of
92W. An upper level trough is over the E Gulf with axis along
85W. A good amount of upper level cloudiness is over the E Gulf,
and the upper trough is helping to support the convection
associated with the surface trough/low. The GFS model maintains
the upper level trough over the E Gulf for the next several days.

The low over the NE Gulf is forecast to drift northward, reaching
inland in the Florida Panhandle by early Thursday. A surface
trough will trail from the low pressure center, across the north
central Gulf waters, through Friday. High pressure will build in
its wake and prevail through the upcoming weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

15-25 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea with strongest
winds over the central Caribbean. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is over the NW Caribbean from 18N-22N between
81W-88W. Isolated moderate convection is further S along the
coasts and just inland over Honduras and Nicaragua from 11N-17N
between 80W-86W.

The base of an upper level trough is over the NW Caribbean. The
remainder of the Caribbean has a broad upper level ridge with
westerly flow.

Atlantic high pressure will maintain fresh to locally strong
trades across the Caribbean generally south of 18N east of 80W
through the upcoming weekend, with highest seas of 10 ft off the
northwest coast of Colombia. Large northeast swell will reach the
tropical waters east of the Virgin Islands on Thu night, and reach
the northeast Atlantic Passages on Fri night into Sat, with seas
then subsiding from the east on Sun and Mon. Broad low pressure
will develop across the southwest Caribbean early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered moderate convection is over the W Atlantic from 23N-31N
between 75W-80W to include the N Bahamas. This convection is
associated with an upper trough and surface trough over the
eastern Gulf of Mexico. A surface ridge extends from a 1029 mb
high centered near 32N56W. Elsewhere, a 1030 mb high is centered
over the Azores near 38N28W.

An east to west ridge will meander across the W Atlantic waters
through early next week supporting fresh to locally strong flow
across the tropical waters including the approaches to the
northern Caribbean Passages, except near gale conditions are
forecast along the north coast of Hispaniola late Thu. Fresh to
locally strong southerly winds are forecast north of the Bahamas
overnight.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Latto
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