[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161200
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed May 16 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 35W from 10N southward. Widely scattered
moderate convection is from 03S-06N between 31W- 38W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 10N14W to 04N17W. The ITCZ continues from 04N17W to 01N30W
to 04N34W. The ITCZ resumes W of the tropical wave near 04N36W and
continues to 01N40W to the coast of N Brazil near 02N50W. Besides
the convection associated with the tropical wave, widely scattered
moderate convection is from 01N-09N between 07W-20W, and from
02S-03N between 20W-31W.

...DISCUSSION

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends from the Florida Panhandle near 31N36W to
an embedded 1010 mb low near 28N86W to 24N88W. Patches of
scattered moderate convection is over the E Gulf of Mexico, and W
Cuba between 81W-86W. Scattered showers are elsewhere within 60 nm
of the trough, and over central Florida. A 1015 mb high is
centered over the NW Gulf near 27N95W producing fair weather.

An upper level trough has been in the eastern half of the Gulf of
Mexico during the last few days. An upper level cyclonic
circulation center is near 29N85W. The GFS model for 250 mb and
for 500 mb maintains the upper level trough and cyclonic
circulation center for the next few days.

The low over the NE Gulf is forecast to drift northward, reaching
inland in the Florida Panhandle by early Thursday. A surface
trough will trail from the low pressure center, across the north
central Gulf waters, through Friday. High pressure will build in
its wake and prevail through the upcoming weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

15-25 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea with strongest
winds over the central Caribbean. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is over the NW Caribbean from 19N-22N between
82W-86W. Isolated moderate convection is further S along the
coasts of Honduras ans Nicaragua from 11N-17N between 81W-84W.
Scattered showers are inland over Nicaragua.

The monsoon trough is along 08.5N from Costa Rica to northern
Colombia. Isolated moderate convection is S of 11N.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow is moving across the W
Caribbean between 80W-90W, including across Central America.

Atlantic high pressure will maintain fresh to locally strong
tradewinds across the Caribbean Sea, south of 18N east of 80W,
through the upcoming weekend, with highest seas of 9 feet off the
northwest coast of Colombia. Large northeast swell will reach the
tropical waters northeast of the Virgin Islands on Friday, and
reach the northeast Atlantic Ocean Passages on Saturday, with seas
then subsiding from the east on Sunday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface ridge extends from a 1027 mb high centered near 32N53W.
Scattered moderate convection is over the W Atlantic from 24N-31N
between 75W-79W to include the N Bahamas. Elsewhere, a 1030 mb
high is centered over the Azores near 39N28W.

An upper level trough extends from a Canary Islands cyclonic
circulation center, to 29N23W, to a second cyclonic circulation
center that is near 27N40W, The trough continues to 23N50W and
21N59W.

The central Atlantic high will prevail in the forecast waters
through Sunday. Fresh to locally strong winds will prevail across
the tropical waters, including the approaches to the northern
Caribbean Sea Passages.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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