[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121722
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
122 PM EDT Sat May 12 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is
listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-
MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are
forecast for the area called: AGADIR. The OUTLOOK, for the 24
hours that follow the forecast that is valid until 14 May/1200
UTC, consists of: the persistence of a N or NE near gale to gale
in AGADIR.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections Sierra
Leone near 07N12W, to 02N15W. The ITCZ continues from 02N15W, to
00N30W to 01N40W to the coast of Brazil near 00N50W. Scattered
moderate convection is S of the monsoon trough from 02N-05N
between 02W-09W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from
from 03S-06N between 38W-57W.

...DISCUSSION

GULF OF MEXICO...

10-20 kt SE return flow is over the Gulf of Mexico with strongest
winds N of the Yucatan Peninsula. Radar imagery shows scattered
moderate convection over the SE Gulf, W Cuba, the Straits of
Florida, and S Florida. Scattered showers are over central
Florida. An upper level trough is over the central Gulf of Mexico
with axis along 90W.

High pressure over the northern waters will lift northward this
weekend as a surface trough develops over the SE Gulf. Low
pressure will develop along the trough W of Florida on Sun and
slowly move NW toward the Florida Panhandle. This system will make
landfall Tue night and then head into the SE United States.
Showers and thunderstorms will affect the Gulf waters near and E
of the low until it makes landfall.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

15-25 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean with strongest winds
along the coast of N Colombia and weakest winds over the NW
Caribbean. A surface trough is over the Yucatan Peninsula with
scattered showers. The Monsoon Trough is along 09N/10N, passing
from the eastern Pacific Ocean to Costa Rica, Panama and northern
Colombia. Scattered moderate convection is over this area S of
12N. In the upper levels, a large ridge is over the Caribbean
with axis from Costa Rica to Haiti.

Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail in the south central
Caribbean Sea through Wednesday night. NE swell will maintain
seas 8 to 10 feet in the central Caribbean, and the coast of N
Colombia through the weekend. Winds could become strong N
of 27N and W of 77W Mon night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1022 mb high is over the W Atlantic near 32N74W. A surface
trough extends from 32N66W to central Cuba near 23N80W. Scattered
showers are within 90 nm of the trough. A large 1027 mb high is
centered over the central Atlantic near 35N44W.

An upper level trough is over the central Atlantic N of 25N
between 55W-65W with scattered showers. An upper level low is
centered over the E Atlantic near 28N38W with scattered showers.

The current surface trough will lift NW this weekend. High
pressure will build in its wake and prevail through the middle of
the upcoming week.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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