[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111653
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1253 PM EDT Fri May 11 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes the coastal sections of Sierra Leone
near 08N13W, to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W to 01N30W
to the the coast of Brazil near 00N50W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is from 02N-07N between 02W-22W.
Scattered moderate convection along the ITCZ from 01N-03N between
25W-28W, and from 04S-01N between 35W-40W.

...DISCUSSION

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1021 mb high is centered over the Florida Panhandle near
30N86W. A surface trough is is over the Bay of Campeche and S
Mexico from 22N92W to 16N93W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm
of the trough axis. Elsewhere, scattered moderate convection is
over the SE Gulf from 23W-26W between 82W-86W.

The high will move to the W Atlantic Sat and produce SE return
flow over the Gulf. A surface trough will develop over the SE Gulf
on Sun and transition to a 1008 mb low over the NE Gulf on Mon and
Tue with scattered moderate to strong convection, and fresh to
strong winds. The low will move inland to the Florida Panhandle on
Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends from the Yucatan Channel near 23N87W to
the coast of Honduras near 15N87W. Scattered rainshowers are over
the NW Caribbean.

The Monsoon Trough passes from the eastern Pacific Ocean to 09N
over Panama and N Colombia. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is over the SW Caribbean from 08N-11N between 74W-82W.

Broad upper level high is centered over the SW Caribbean near
14N80W and covers the entire Caribbean.

The current western Caribbean Sea surface trough will drift W
across Central America today. Fresh to strong winds will prevail
in the central Caribbean Sea through Tuesday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A dissipating stationary front is over the W Atlantic from
32N70W, to 23N78W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm
E of the front to include the Bahamas. A 1028 mb high is centered
over the central Atlantic near 35N47W.

Expect the front to weaken to a surface trough tonight. A surface
ridge will build from the central Atlantic Ocean in its wake Sat,
and prevail through Tuesday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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