[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041725
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
125 PM EDT Fri May 4 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1735 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 06N10W to 00N35W. The
intertropical convergence zone continues from 00N35W to 02S44W.
Scattered moderate convection is ongoing from 02S to 04N between
22W and 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends east to west from the western Atlantic
along the northern Gulf coast to Texas. Offshore of the Texas
coastal waters, moderate to fresh winds prevail from the southeast
driven by the high pressure in the western Atlantic ocean.
Fog from this morning has lifted and visibility is unrestricted.

Farther south, a daily thermal low will develop inland on the Yucatan
Peninsula causing surges of fresh to occasionally strong NE to E
winds as the low strengthens and weakens over the coming days.

For the forecast, winds over the southeast Gulf will diminish and
back more to the NE and N through early Sat ahead of the surface
trough from the eastern Atlc across Florida. Locally heavy rains
and thunderstorms will accompany the trough as it moves into the
eastern Gulf early Sun before stalling and weakening. The ridge
will weaken as well and high pressure will shift west through the
lower Mississippi Valley, allowing moderate northerly flow and 2ft
to 4 ft seas through mid week. A weak cold front will pass through
the region from southern Louisiana to southern Texas by Sat
night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends from east of Hispaniola into north
central Caribbean. Scattered thunderstorms will continue in the
Windward Passage as the surface trough moves north of the area
through Sat. Seas will build over tropical north Atlantic and the
eastern Caribbean to 6 to 9 ft through Sun.

This pattern will persist through Sun, then start to subside into
early next week as the trough moves farther westward and the ridge
weakens. Atmospheric instability associated with the mid/upper
level low will provide more thunderstorm potential to the north
central Caribbean through late Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The main weather maker remains a mid/upper level low centered
over Great Exuma in the central Bahamas, driving a surface
trough extending from 30N71W to the western tip of Hispaniola. A
recent scatterometer pass over the surface trough indicates winds
along the central Bahamian waters 30 kts out of the NE. Upper
level divergence in the southeast region of the trough are driving
heavy showers over central and southern Bahamian islands. E to SE
winds will continue in Tropical North Atlantic through the
central Caribbean as high pressure builds westward over the
Atlantic in the wake of the trough. Strong NE to E winds are ahead
of the trough east and across the Bahamas. Fresh to strong
easterly winds are noted between 21N and 27N, closer to the
subtropical ridge axis. Buoy and scatterometer data also show
strong SE winds in the waters N of Puerto Rico in the Atlantic,
with recent satellite altimeter passes showing seas to 9 ft. This
is related to ridging building in the wake of the trough.


The trough will sharpen and elongate as it moves westward,
eventually moving into Florida Sat. Strong to near gale force
winds will accompany the trough as well numerous showers and
thunderstorms across the Bahamas through Sat. Scattered
thunderstorms are possible across the Bahamas and adjacent waters
into Sun. Winds and seas will start to diminish Sun through early
next week as the trough lifts north-northeastward off the
northeast coast of Florida through Mon, and the ridge weakens, but
held in place along roughly 28N/29N.

Farther east, the remainder of the Atlantic is under the
influence of a 1028 mb high pressure located near 33N57W. This
system is producing moderate to fresh trade winds across the deep
tropics, where seas are reaching 7 to 9 ft in NE to E swell.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Manougian
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