[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 012208
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
152 PM EDT Tue May 1 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America,
and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N.
The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather
observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends SW from the coast of Africa near 09N13W
to 03N17W. The ITCZ continues from 03N17W and crosses the equator
near 30W, then extending westward to the coast of South America
near 01S46W. Scattered moderate with isolated strong rain showers
are occurring 150 nm either side of the ITCZ west of 24W.
Isolated were noted within 240 nm either side of the monsoon
trough and ITCZ east of 20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface High located just offshore of the South Carolina coast
is producing generally southeasterly winds of 15-25 kt west of
90W, with easterly 10-15 kt winds occurring east of 90W. Thick
low clouds were observed over the NW Gulf N of 25N and W of 94W.
Generally clear skies were noted elsewhere across the remainder
of the Gulf. The high will continue to move ESE today, with a
ridge extending westward across the northern Gulf through
Friday. Easterly winds will become fresh to strong in the SE
Gulf and Straits of Florida later today, and continue through
Fri as high pressure builds NW in the western Atlantic Ocean.


CARIBBEAN SEA...

A large high pressure system over the central Atlantic will maintain
fresh easterly trade winds south of 17N, with locally strong trades
expected in the south-central Caribbean Sea S of 13N through early
Thursday. The southern extent of a broad inverted trough will develop
and move W across the NE Caribbean Sea Thurs-Sat, resulting in
an increase in showers and thunderstorms mainly E of 80W as a
deep tropical moisture plume gets pulled northward out of S
America. See Atlantic Ocean discussion for additional details.


ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N60W in the Atlantic Ocean, then becomes
diffuse and stationary E of the central Bahamas near 24N75W. A surface
trough extends southward from the SE Bahamas across ern Cuba to wrn
Jamaica. Scattered to numerous showers continue along and SE of
the frontal boundary north of 22N between 58W and 80W. A
sprawling 1034-mb High, centered in the central Atlantic near
36N43W, is maintaining E to SE flow across across the region
east of the cold front. West of the front, light northerly flow
dominates N or 30N, with E flow occurring south of 30N. As the
front and high pressure systems weaken, surface winds are
expected to become mainly E at 10-25 kt across the region
through Thurs. By Friday, an upper- level low is forecast to
develop in the vicinity of the SE Bahamas, inducing an inverted
sfc trough from the SE Bahamas swd across Hispaniola. East of
the trough, winds will become southeasterly and increase to 20-
30 kt by Fri afternoon. The combination of the upper-low and the
surface trough will produce widespread heavy showers and
scattered thunderstorms through Saturday along and within 600 nm
E of the trough, including the adjacent land masses of
Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the northern
Leeward Islands.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Stewart
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