[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291745
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
145 PM EDT Thu Mar 29 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface ridge in the western Atlantic Ocean and relatively
strong low pressure in northern parts of South America support
winds pulsing to gale force, within 75 nm of the coast of
Colombia between 74W and 76W. The gale force winds will recur
each night during the evening and overnight hours, for the next
few days. Please read the High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Weather Service under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC for more details. This information also is found at the
following website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 07N12W, to 07N13W. The ITCZ continues from 07N13W to
04N20W, 02N30W, crossing the Equator along 35W, to 02S40W, and to
01S45W at the coast of Brazil. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are within 180 nm of the
coast of Brazil between 32W and 51W. isolated moderate to locally
strong rainshowers are elsewhere from 07N southward from 46W
eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is in the NW Gulf of Mexico, passing through south
central Louisiana, and into NE coastal sections of Mexico near
25N97W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers
are present from 27N northward between 88W and 93W.

A surface ridge extends from a high pressure center that is to the
NE of the northern Bahamas, into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Fresh
to strong SE return flow will continue through early this
afternoon. The current NW Gulf of Mexico cold front will extend
from the Big Bend of Florida to Veracruz Mexico on Friday morning.
The front will stall and weaken from central Florida to the Bay
of Campeche on Saturday. Fresh to near gale force NW winds are
expected in the western Bay of Campeche from tonight through
Saturday morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the
gale warning for the coastal areas near Colombia.

Seismic activity with undersea volcano Kick'em Jenny, north of
Grenada near 12.18N 61.38W has steadily declined, and the alert
level for mariners has returned to normal, with an exclusion zone
of 1.5 km. Please see www.nadma.gd for additional information.

Rainshowers are possible elsewhere, in scattered to broken low
level clouds, except for the area that is from 13N southward
between 66W and 77W.

High pressure NE of the northern Bahamas will shift east-northeast
slowly through Saturday morning, allowing the continuation of
fresh to strong trade winds in the south-central Caribbean Sea.
Minimal gale force winds near the coast of Colombia are forecast
for tonight. Northerly swell will propagate into the north-
central Caribbean Sea through Friday morning. Fresh to strong
winds will develop in the Gulf of Honduras tonight through Friday
morning.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N52W, to a 1012 mb low pressure
center that is near 26N57W. A surface trough continues from 26N57W
20N57W, to the coastal waters of the eastern side of Dominica in
the eastern Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: isolated to locally
strong rainshowers cover the area that is from 20N northward
between 50W and 60W. rainshowers are possible also within 300 nm
to the NW of the line 20N52W 15N58W 12N63W. High level clouds are
within 500 nm to the SE of the same 20N52W 12N63W line.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 10N
northward from 50W eastward. A surface ridge extends from a 1031
mb high pressure center that is near 37N32W, through 32N39W, to
28N42W, 21N44W, and 15N52W.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 24N19W, about
240 nm to the SSW of the SW part of the Canary Islands, and about
190 nm to the west of the coast of the Western Sahara. Upper
level cyclonic wind flow, that is associated with the center,
covers the Atlantic Ocean from 14N northward from 34W eastward.
Clouds and possible rainshowers are from 180 nm to 560 nm of the
center in the N quadrant, and from 350 nm to 500 n m of the center
in the S quadrant.

High pressure NE of the northern Bahamas will shift east-northeast
slowly through Saturday morning allowing for the winds and seas
to diminish gradually through early Friday. A cold front will
move off NE Florida on Friday evening, stall N of the Bahamas on
Saturday, and then lift N of the area as a warm front from Sunday
through Monday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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