[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290005
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT Wed Mar 28 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface ridge in the western Atlantic Ocean and relatively
strong low pressure in northern parts of South America support
winds pulsing to gale force, within 75 nm to 150 nm of the coast
of Colombia. The gale force winds will recur each night during the
evening and overnight hours, through Friday morning, while this
surface weather pattern persists. Please read the High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Weather Service under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. This information
also is found at the following website:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Sierra Leone near 07N13W to 04N17W.
The ITCZ continues from 04N17W to 01N30W to the coast of Brazil
near 01S45W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N-05N between
16W-20W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is along
the coast of Brazil from 03S-01N between 39W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from an Atlantic Ocean 1024 mb high near
29N74W, across SE Florida and NW Cuba, to the Yucatan Peninsula.
The Gulf of Mexico has 15-20 kt SE surface flow. Seas are 8-10 ft
over a large area of the W Gulf W of 90W. The entire Gulf is void
of precipitation. A developing frontal boundary is organizing
itself in central Texas at the moment. Scattered moderate to
strong convection is also inland over E Texas and NW Louisiana
with the potential for severe weather.

The current surface ridge, from the SW N Atlantic Ocean into the
eastern Gulf of Mexico, will maintain fresh-to-strong SE return
flow through Thursday morning. The current Texas cold front will
enter the NW Gulf of Mexico on Thursday morning. Fresh-to-strong
southerly winds will develop within 60 nm to the east of the
front, and in the Louisiana adjacent waters on Thursday afternoon,
continuing through the evening hours. The front will reach from
the Florida Big Bend to Tampico on Friday afternoon, and then the
front will stall across central Florida on Saturday morning while
it weakens. High pressure building in the wake of the front will
extend to southern Mexico and support fresh to near gale force
winds in the western Bay of Campeche Thu night to Sat morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the
gale warning for the coastal areas near Colombia.

Seismic activity with undersea volcano Kick'em Jenny, north of
Grenada near 12.18N 61.38W has steadily declined, and the alert
level for mariners has returned to normal, with an exclusion zone
of 1.5 km. Please see www.nadma.gd for additional information.

The SW part of a dissipating cold front extends from 20N67W to N
Hispaniola near 19N73W. Scattered showers are over Hispaniola,
Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands.

Surface high pressure, that is to the NE of Great Abaco Island in
the Bahamas, will support fresh-to-strong trade winds in the
south central Caribbean Sea through Saturday morning. The wind
speeds will pulse to minimal gale force near the coast of Colombia
each night through Friday morning. Large N to NE swell will
continue to propagate into the northern Caribbean Sea through
Friday morning. Fresh to strong winds will develop in the Gulf of
Honduras tonight and on Thursday night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N53W to 23N60W, dissipating to
20N67W. Scattered moderate convection is within 240 nm of the
front N of 21N.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 50W
eastward. A surface ridge is along 35W.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 28N21W over the
Canary Islands. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers
are within 600 nm to the NE of the cyclonic center.

The current weakening cold front will push southeastward through
this evening, and then stall before dissipating north of Puerto
Rico on Thursday. Strong NE winds will affect the adjacent waters
that are to the west of the central and southern Bahamas through
early Friday, including the Atlantic Ocean approaches. Large north
swell will impact the waters that are to the NE of the Bahamas
through Friday morning. A new cold front will move off NE Florida
early on Friday evening, stall N of the Bahamas on Saturday, and
lift N of the area as a warm front on Saturday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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