[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251153
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
753 AM EDT Sun Mar 25 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...

A combination of strong surface high pressure ridging southward
along the U.S. east coast and relatively strong low pressure over
northern South America supports winds pulsing to gale force near
the coast of Colombia. The gale force winds will recur each night
during the evening and overnight hours through the end of next
week while this surface weather pattern persists. The current
gale is forecast to continue until 12Z this morning over the
area from 11N to 12N between 74W and 76W, with corresponding
seas of 9 to 12 ft. For more details please see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC. This information can also be
found at the following website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

...GALE WARNING for the METEO-FRANCE areas...

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is
listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-
MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds N to NE
winds are forecast to develop this evening for the following
areas: Portions of the AGADIR and TARFAYA zones adjacent to the
coast of Morocco. The gale conditions are expected to continue
until this evening. Winds will become strong northerly from
tonight through Mon night.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Sierra Leone on the African
coast near 08N13W to 03N22W, where latest scatterometer data
indicates the ITCZ continues then continues to 01N28W to below
the Equator at 33W and to the northeast coast of Brazil near
02S44W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
present within an area bounded by 01S05W to 03N28W to 06N14W to
01S05W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Fair weather prevails across the entire Gulf of Mexico as 1022 mb
surface high pressure centered off the Atlantic coast of N
Florida near 28N72W ridges westward across the Gulf. Abundant dry
air prevails as ridging at the mid and upper levels of the
atmosphere extends over the Gulf. Moderate to fresh E to SE
surface winds are noted over the eastern and central Gulf, while
SE to S winds are observed over the western Gulf. Sea heights are
highest, near 7 ft, in the NW Gulf due to the longer fetch in this
area. The high pressure is expected to gradually shift ESE during
the next several days. This high will be reinforced by stronger
ridging building S along the E coast of the United States during
this time frame. Developing low pres over the central plains
states will tighten the pressure gradient over the Gulf and cause
winds to become fresh to strong on Tue. Surface troughing is
expected to develop over the Yucatan Peninsula each day, then
migrate W over the Bay of Campeche during the evening and
nighttime hours. Otherwise, fair weather is expected to continue
through the weekend as dry air remains in place.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Undersea volcano Kick'em Jenny, north of Grenada near 12.18N
61.38W, is in a state of unrest. The government of Grenada advises
mariners to observe a 5 km or 3.1 nm exclusion zone around
Kick'em Jenny. Please refer to the web page, www.nadma.gd, for
additional information.

Relatively quiet conditions exist across the basin as mid to
upper-level ridging maintains a relatively dry and subsident
weather pattern over the basin. Trade winds are strongest over the
south-central waters N of the coast of Colombia. Winds are
expected to reach gale-force during the evening and overnight
hours through Thu night and Fri morning. See the SPECIAL FEATURES
section above for more details. Otherwise, ridging extending
southward from along the east coast of the united States will
maintain moderate to fresh NE to E winds over the Caribbean basin
through the first half of next week. Winds will be fresh to strong
in the Windward Passage.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A slow moving cold front extends SW from 31N51W to 22N60W, then
continues as a weakening stationary front to the northeast coast
of Puerto Rico. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
observed along and up to 120 nm E of the cold front mainly N of
27N. West of these fronts, surface high pressure centered just E
of Florida dominates the area as NW to NE flow and cooler air
covers the western Atlc. Expansive surface high pressure also dominates
the central and eastern Atlantic Ocean. A 1030 mb high is
centered over the E Atlantic just SW of the Azores near 37N29W
with a ridge extending WSW reaching the NE of the Leeward Islands.
This high is producing moderate to fresh trade winds across a
large portion of the tropical and subtropical eastern Atlantic
waters N of the ITCZ and W of 25W.

The cold front currently over the west-central Atlantic will
slowly shift eastward, then stall, weaken and dissipate. Another
cold front will enter the far northwestern waters late Sun through
Mon in conjunction with developing low pres SE of New England.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

McElroy/JA/ERA
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