[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231154
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
754 AM EDT Fri Mar 23 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1130 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends SW from Sierra Leone on the African
coast near 09N13W to 04N17W. The ITCZ continues from 04N17W to
00N30W to the northeast coast of Brazil near 02S44W. Scattered
moderate convection is present from 03N to 05N between 18W and
24W. Similar convection is occurring from 04N to 06N between 10W
and 13W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure has pushed SE to the Mississippi Delta near 29N88W.
The high will slide ESE over the NE corner of the Gulf today,
over the Bahamas on Sat and to the east of the Bahamas on Sun.
Increasing SE return flow will develop over the Gulf during the
first half of next week. Return flow over the Gulf will become
fresh to strong on Mon and Tue as the pressure gradient tightens
between high pressure east of the Gulf and developing low pressure
over the Central Plains States. A trough will develop in the
Yucatan peninsula each evening, and shift westward across the
southwestern corner of the Gulf during the overnight hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Undersea volcano Kick'em Jenny, north of Grenada near 12.18N
61.38W, is in a state of unrest. The government of Grenada advises
mariners to observe a 5 km or 3.1 nm exclusion zone around
Kick'em Jenny. Please refer to the web page, www.nadma.gd, for
additional information.

A weakening cold front extends SW from the Windward Passage to the
southeastern portion of Jamaica. The cold front will continue to
weaken and is expected to dissipate later today. Only patchy
cloudiness and isolated showers were observed along and up to 150
nm NW of this boundary. High pressure ridging extending SW from
the Atlantic Ocean will support fresh to locally strong trade
winds across central and western Caribbean Sea during the next
several days. Winds will reach near gale force along the NW coast
of Colombia during the overnight hours. Fresh to strong winds can
be expected over the Windward Passage and to the lee of Cuba and
Hispaniola.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the discussion area near 32N59W, then
continues SE to 23N68W, then across the Windward Passage.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are found along and
up to 150 nm E of the front to the N of 25N. The front will
continue moving SE and gradually slow down, eventually reaching
from 32N48W to Hispaniola on Sun. It is possible that another cold
front will drop southward from 32N on Monday in conjunction with
a developing area of low pressure off the east coast of the United
States which will cut off from the mid latitude flow. Model
guidance suggests the front will pass S over the Bahamas as it
weakens.

Otherwise, strong 1035 mb high pressure centered SW of the Azores
near 34N34W dominates the eastern two thirds of the basin and
ridges southwestward to the Leeward Islands. Moderate to fresh NE
winds are observed in satellite-derived wind data over the
tropical Atlc N of 05N.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
McElroy/Cangialosi
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