[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230003
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
803 PM EDT Thu Mar 22 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING for the METEO-FRANCE areas...

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is
listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-
MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are
forecast this evening for the eastern portion of the following
areas: AGADIR, TARFAYA, and CANARIAS. Winds will subside tonight
with near gale conditions persisting on Friday over AGADIR.


...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends SW from Sierra Leone on the African
coast near 09N13W to 06N17W. The ITCZ continues from 06N17W to
03N24W to 01N37W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is present from 04N to 05N between 16W and 18W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

The cold front that entered the Gulf on Tue has has exited to the
SE of the Gulf into the Caribbean. High pressure is building
southeastward from the Mississippi Valley and will pass over the
NE corner of the Gulf on Fri, over the Bahamas on Sat and to the
east of the Bahamas on Sun. Increasing SE return flow will develop
over the Gulf during the first half of next week. Return flow
over the Gulf will become fresh to strong on Mon and Tue as the
pressure gradient tightens between high pressure east of the Gulf
and developing low pressure over the Central Plains States. A
trough will develop in the Yucatan peninsula each evening, and
shift westward across the southwestern corner of the Gulf during
the overnight hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Undersea volcano Kick'em Jenny, north of Grenada near 12.18N
61.38W, is in a state of unrest. The government of Grenada advises
mariners to observe a 5 km or 3.1 nm exclusion zone around
Kick'em Jenny. Please refer to the web page, www.nadma.gd, for
additional information.

A cold front extends SW from SE Cuba near 20N78W to the Gulf of
Honduras near 16N89W. This cold front is beginning to weaken and
is expected to dissipate overnight. Only patchy cloudiness and
isolated showers were observed along and up to 150 nm NW of this
boundary. High pressure ridging extending SW from the Atlantic
Ocean will support fresh to locally strong trade winds across the
south central Caribbean Sea during the next several days. Winds
will reach near gale force along the NW coast of Colombia during
the overnight hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the discussion area near 32N61W, then
continues SE to 26N68W, then across the far SE Bahamas to SE Cuba
near 21N76W. This front will continue moving SE and gradually slow
down, eventually reaching from 32N48W to Hispaniola on Sun.The
fronts will merge, before stalling across the far SE waters during
the upcoming weekend. It is possible that another cold front will
drop southward from 32N on Monday in conjunction with a developing
area of low pressure which will cut off from the mid latitude
flow. The front could pass S over the Bahamas as it weakens.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are found along and
up to 120 nm NW of the front to the N of 26N.

Otherwise, broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the
Atlantic Ocean from 60W eastward. A 1034 mb high pressure center
is near 36N25W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
McElroy
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