[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161144
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
744 AM EDT Fri Mar 16 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1130 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 13N16W
to 04N21W. The ITCZ continues from 04N21W to 01N30W to the coast
of Brazil near 01S47W. Scattered moderate convection is present
within 180 n mi north of the ITCZ between 32W and 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure resides over the NE Gulf near the Florida Big Bend
as well as the Bahamas. The high is generally maintaining light
to moderate E to SE winds over the NE half of the Gulf. Moderate
to fresh SE winds have already developed over the SE half of the
Gulf. The high will drift slowly SE from the NE Gulf over the SW N
Atlantic waters near the Bahamas and Straits of Florida by early
Saturday morning, then head E and weaken S of Bermuda through
Monday. Nevertheless, the high will continue to ridge E into the
Gulf of Mexico for the next several days. Return flow on the
western half of the basin will remain moderate to fresh on late
tonight ahead of an area of low pressure developing in the central
plains. This low will head ESE into the Atlantic near Cape
Hatteras on Sat and Sat night. Stronger low pressure moving E
through the southern plains will drag a cold front into the
western Gulf on Mon night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The undersea volcano Kick 'em Jenny, located north of Grenada
near 12.18N 61.38W, is in a state of unrest. The government of
Grenada advises mariners to observe a 5 km / 3.1 nm exclusion
zone around Kick 'em Jenny. Please see http://nadma.gd for further
information.

Weak 1021 mb high pressure covers the NE Gulf of Mexico and the
Bahamas. This relatively weak ridge is primarily generating
moderate to fresh NE to E winds over the basin, except for fresh
to strong winds along the N coasts of Colombia and Venezuela.
Relatively dry weather prevails over the basin except for some
residual cloudiness and isolated showers associated with a
stationary front that dissipated Thu morning. The cloudiness and
showers are observed near the Windward Passage and between Cuba
and Honduras. Remnant moisture left behind continues to support
isolated showers over the Windward Passage and western Caribbean.
This weather regime will remain in place through early next week
as the high pressure to the north remains weakened by low pres
systems moving eastward from the United States mainland.
Relatively dry conditions prevail and will continue through this
weekend as mid to upper-level ridging from the east resides over
the basin.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Deep layer low pressure centered between Newfoundland and
Labrador supports a cold front that extends SW from 32N54W to
25N62W to 21N69W, then continues as a weakening cold front to the
Dominican Republic near 20N71W. A secondary weakening cold front
extends from 31N59W to 26N65W. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are occurring along and up to 30 nm NW of the cold
front N of 23N. Cloudiness and patchy rain are found along and up
to 150 nm NW of the front N of 23N. Fresh to strong SW winds are
observed along and up to 90 nm E of the front N of 29N. The
secondary weakening cold front will merge with the primary cold
front tonight. The combined front will then weaken into a trough
this weekend. High pressure will shift E from the NE Gulf of
Mexico behind the front later today and Fri, then head E and
weaken S of Bermuda this weekend. A broad area of high pressure
prevails across the central and eastern Atlantic, anchored by a
1026 mb high centered near 29N40W. The high is maintaining
moderate to fresh northeast winds over the tropical Atlantic north
of the ITCZ between 25W and the Windward Islands.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
McElroy/Cangialosi
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