[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160000
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Mar 15 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Sierra Leone on the coast of
Africa near 07N12W to 05N16W. The ITCZ continues from 05N16W to
03N27W to 02N40W to the coast of Brazil near 01S52W. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is present from 01N to
05N between 20W and 29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure is centered over the NE Gulf near the Florida Big
Bend. The high is generally maintaining light to moderate E to SE
winds over the NE half of the Gulf. Moderate to fresh SE winds
have already developed over the SE half of the Gulf. The high will
drift slowly SE from the NE Gulf over the SW N Atlantic waters
near the Bahamas and Straits of Florida by early Saturday morning,
then linger in this vicinity through Monday. Return flow on the
western half of the basin will remain moderate to fresh on late
tonight ahead of an area of low pressure developing in the central
plains. This low will head ESE into the Atlantic near Cape
Hatteras on Sat and Sat night. Stronger low pressure moving E
through the southern plains will drag a cold front into the
western Gulf on Mon night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The frontal boundary over the NW Caribbean has dissipated. NE to
E winds over the basin are primarily moderate to fresh, except for
fresh to strong winds along the coast of Colombia. Remnant
moisture left behind continues to support isolated showers over
the Windward Passage and western Caribbean. This weather regime
will remain in place through early next week as the high pressure
to the north remains weakened by low pres systems moving eastward
from the United States mainland. Relatively dry conditions prevail
and will continue through this weekend as mid to upper- level
ridging from the east resides over the basin.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Deep layer low pressure centered between Newfoundland and Labrador
supports a cold front that extends SW from 32N55W to 26N63W to the
western Dominican Republic near 20N71W. A second cold front
extends from 32N60W to 27N68W. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are occurring along and up to 60 nm ahead of the
front N of 22N. Cloudiness and patchy rain are found along and up
to 90 nm NW of the front N of 22N. Fresh to strong southerly
winds are observed along and up to within 300 nm E of the front N
of 28N. The reinforcing front will merge with the primary front
this evening. The combined front will then dissipate into a
trough during the weekend. High pressure will shift E from the NE
Gulf of Mexico behind the front later today and Fri, then continue
east into the west Atlantic along 27N this weekend. A broad area
of high pressure prevails across the central and eastern Atlantic,
anchored by a 1025 mb high centered near 28N41W. The high is
maintaining moderate to fresh northeast winds over the tropical
Atlantic north of the ITCZ between 30W and the Windward Islands.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
McElroy
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