[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151159
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1256 AM EDT Thu Mar 15 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 06N11W
to 03N17W. The ITCZ continues from 03N17W to 01N35W to the coast
of Brazil near 01S48W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is present within 120 nm either side of the monsoon
trough and ITCZ E of 35W and W of 44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure centered just S of Louisiana near 28N89W is
generally maintaining light to moderate N to NE winds E of 90W
and E to SE winds of the same magnitude over the western half of
the Gulf. The high will migrate southeast over the northeast
Gulf and then over the western Atlantic during the next 48
hours, eventually reaching the Bahamas by Sat evening. Moderate
to fresh northeast winds will generally veer to SE today then to
S on Fri as the high shifts ESE. Return flow on the west side of
the high will become moderate to fresh on Friday. The strongest
return flow will be concentrated W of 90W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weakening stationary front extends from the eastern tip of
Cuba near 20N74W SW to NE Honduras near 15N84W. Scattered to
isolated showers are observed in the Gulf of Honduras. The front
will continue to weaken through dissipation tonight. Fresh
northerly winds are observed over the NW Caribbean west of the
front while fresh to strong trades continue over the south-
central Caribbean waters being the strongest winds along the
coast of Colombia. Moderate trades dominate elsewhere across the
basin. Relatively dry conditions prevail and will continue
during the next several days as mid to upper-level ridging
extending over the basin from the east maintains a benign
weather pattern.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N59W to 21N71W where it transition
to a weakening stationary front that enters the Caribbean
through the eastern tip of Cuba continuing to the eastern Gulf
of Honduras. Scattered to isolated showers are within 120 nm
ahead of the front. Fresh to strong southerly winds are within
305 nm ahead of the front N of 25N supported by a stronger
pressure gradient between the front and broad high pressure over
the the central Atlc. A reinforcing cold front extending from
30N66W to 27N72W will merge with the primary front today. The
combined front will then dissipate into a trough by the end of
the week. High pressure will shift E from the NE Gulf of Mexico
behind the front later today and Fri, then continue east into
the west Atlantic along 27N this weekend. A broad area of high
pressure prevails across the central and eastern Atlantic,
anchored by a 1025 mb high centered near 28N41W. The high is
maintaining moderate to fresh northeast winds over the tropical
Atlantic north of the ITCZ between 30W and the Windward Islands.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
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