[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140001
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
801 PM EDT Tue Mar 13 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

None.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 07N11W to
05N14W. The ITCZ continues from 05N14W to 00N33W to the coast of
Brazil near 03S40W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 03N
to 04N between 17W to 23W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front has exited to the SE of the basin. Residual troughing
over the SW Bay of Campeche is maintaining an area of cloudiness
over the SW Gulf S of 28N and W of 90W. High pressure will build
SE from the central plains of the United States to the NE Gulf by
Fri. Moderate to fresh NE winds will gradually veer to SE as the
high pressure migrates to the NE Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends from eastern Cuba near 20N78W to Belize near
18N88W. The front will slow down and reach from eastern Cuba to
the Gulf of Honduras tonight, then stall from Hispaniola to
Nicaragua on Wed, then dissipate by Thursday. High pressure will
build southeastward from the Gulf of Mexico into the northwest
Caribbean by the end of the week. Fresh to strong trades are
observed N of the cold front as well as the waters S of 18N and
east of 80W. Deep layer low pres will linger near the NE United
states during the next few days. This will weaken the ridge N of
the Caribbean and cap winds along the coast of Colombia to
between 20 and 25 kt during the next few days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends across the west Atlantic from 32N60W to
25N68W to eastern Cuba near 21N75W. The gale force winds that
previously accompanied the front N of 28N have lifted to the N of
31N as the parent low centered near New England lifts farther N.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are present along and
up to 60 nm NW of the front N of 28N. Otherwise, a broad area of
high pressure prevails across the central and eastern Atlantic,
anchored by a 1024 mb high centered near 27N38W.

The convection associated with the front will shift eastward and
diminish tonight as the front continues pushing east. The front is
slowing down and will stall from 32N56W to 26N65W to E Cuba
tonight. A reinforcing shot of cold air pushing E from the Mid
Atlc States will cause the northern part of the front to begin
moving east again by Wednesday night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
McElroy
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