[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120005
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT Sun Mar 11 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning...

.27 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT FROM 31N77W TO 26N80W. N OF 30N W
OF FRONT TO 79W W TO NW WINDS 30 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. N OF
27N E OF FRONT TO LINE FROM 31N59W TO 27N68W SW WINDS 20 TO 30
KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. ELSEWHERE W OF FRONT W TO NW WINDS 20 TO 30
KT. SEAS TO 9 FT N AND NE BAHAMAS.
.36 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT FROM 31N71W TO 22N79W. N OF 29N
WITHIN 180 NM E OF FRONT SW TO W WINDS 30 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO
14 FT. N OF 28N WITHIN 360 NM W OF FRONT W TO NW WINDS 30 TO 40
KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT. ELSEWHERE N OF 27N E OF FRONT TO LINE FROM
31N55W TO 27N67W SW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
ELSEWHERE W OF FRONT W TO NW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT
N AND NE OF BAHAMAS.
.42 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT FROM 31N68W TO 26N72W TO 22N77W. N
OF 29N WITHIN 180 NM E OF FRONT SW WINDS 30 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO
14 FT. N OF 29N WITHIN 120 NM W OF FRONT W TO NW WINDS 30 TO 35
KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT. ELSEWHERE N OF 26N E OF FRONT TO LINE FROM
31N57W TO 26N65W SW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
ELSEWHERE W OF FRONT W TO NW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT
N AND NE OF BAHAMAS.



A cold front will emerge off the Georgia and NE Florida coasts
late tonight into early on Mon. The front will reach from near
31N79W to West Palm Beach early Mon afternoon, from near 31N75W to
NW Cuba Mon evening, from near 31N67W to 26N70W to eastern Cuba
early on Tue before stalling from near 27N65W to central Cuba Tue
night. The cold front will gradually weaken through Thu as high
pres builds eastward over the area. Minimal to strong gale force
winds are expected N of about 29N E and W of the front Mon through
Tue. Currently, the GFS computer model suggests 30-35 kt SW winds
and seas of 12-14 ft ahead of the front, and 30-40 kt W-NW winds
and seas of 16-18 ft in the wake of the front. Please see the
latest Atlantic Ocean High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO
headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, for more details.

...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

.18 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT FROM 30N83W TO 25N89W TO 21N97W.
FROM 22N TO 24N W OF 96W NW TO N WINDS 30 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 11
FT. ELSEWHERE W OF FRONT N WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT FROM 27N82W TO 23N91W TO 19N96W.
S OF 21N W OF 96W NW TO N WINDS 30 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 12 FT.
ELSEWHERE NW OF FRONT TO A LINE FROM 30N88W TO 27N94W TO 25N97W
N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT...EXCEPT N 25 TO 30 KT S OF 25N W
OF 94W. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.36 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT TO MOVE SE OF AREA. S OF 21N W OF
95W NW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.


A cold front will move off the Texas coast this afternoon, then
race southeastward across the entire basin through Mon, and
across the Straits of Florida on Mon evening. A brief gale is
expected behind the front over the far west-central Gulf near
Tampico, Mexico on Mon, then across the SW Gulf near Veracruz,
Mexico late on Mon. Strong northerly winds will follow the front
elsewhere. Seas are forecast to build to 10-12 ft with the
strongest winds, particularly over the SW Gulf. Please see the
latest Atlantic Ocean High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO
headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W, to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W, to
the Equator along 36W, to 01S45W, to the Equator along 50W at the
coast of Brazil. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong rainshowers are from 08N southward from 60W eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Residual moisture, and isolated moderate to locally strong
rainshowers are in the SE corner of the Gulf of Mexico. The upper
level wind flow is mostly westerly.

One surface trough extends from the Florida Panhandle to SE
Louisiana. A second surface trough is in the Texas coastal waters.
A cold front is in the Texas coastal plains. This is the cold
front that is forecast to move through the Gulf of Mexico, and
reach central Florida by tomorrow morning, and clear the entire
Gulf of Mexico, and reach SE Cuba by Tuesday morning. Broken
multilayered clouds have been moving across the Gulf of Mexico
during the day, and now cover the area from 22N northward.

The Texas coastal plains cold front will move off the coast by
early this evening. It will move southeastward across the entire
basin through Mon, and across the Straits of Florida on Mon
evening. Brief gale force winds are expected behind the front over
the far western gulf on Mon, and in the SW gulf Mon afternoon and
night. Strong northerly winds elsewhere in the wake of the front
will diminish from the NW through Mon night. A ridge will extend
from NE Texas to the Straits of Florida on Tue, then slide
eastward while developing into a high center of about 1025 mb over
the NE Gulf by Thu, and shift slightly southeastward on Fri. At
that time, a ridge will extend from the high center westward to NE
Texas.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the area.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended
at 11/1200 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.37 in Nassau
in the Bahamas, and 0.12 in Trinidad.

Fresh to strong trade winds will continue across the waters east
of 80W, except for near gale force winds just to the north of the
A-B-C islands expected through Tue night. A strong cold front will
enter the Yucatan channel and far NW Caribbean late Mon afternoon
or early evening, reach from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras
Tue, stall from Hispaniola to Nicaragua Tue night, and dissipate
by Thu. Strong high pres will build southeastward from the Gulf of
Mexico to over the NW Caribbean beginning on Thu night. Strong NE
winds are expected to develop to the lee of Cuba and Windward
Passage and vicinity waters Fri and Fri night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A central Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 32N42W to
28N49W. A stationary front continues from 28N49W to 26N60W.
The upper level trough that was in the SE corner of the Gulf of
Mexico 24 hours ago now is in the western Atlantic Ocean.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers
cover the Atlantic Ocean from 25N northward between 55W and 72W.

The area of rainshowers, that is associated with an upper level
trough, is capable of producing strong gusty winds and frequent
lightning as it moves eastward quickly through Monday, ahead of
the next cold front. The next cold front will emerge off the
Georgia and NE Florida coasts late tonight into early Mon. The
front will reach from near 31N79W to West Palm Beach early Mon
afternoon, from near 31N75W to NW Cuba Mon evening, from near
31N67W to 26N70W to eastern Cuba early on Tue before stalling from
near 27N65W to central Cuba Tue night. The cold front will
gradually weaken through Thu as high pres builds eastward over the
area. Minimal to strong gale force winds are expected over some
areas both ahead and behind the front Mon through early Tue
afternoon. In the wake of the front, relatively weak high pres
will build W to E along 27N through early Wed as yet another
strong cold front begins to advance across the NW waters of the
basin. This front will be preceded by fresh to strong southwest
winds and mostly strong W to NW winds to the N of 27N as it
quickly moves across the forecast waters to just east of the basin
early on Thu. High pres will build from W to E across the central
waters in the wake of the front.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net