[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110113 AAA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...UPDATED
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 PM EST Sat Mar 10 2018

UPDATED FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING

Gale-force winds are forecast to start soon, from 11N to 14N
between 73W and 77W in the coastal waters of Colombia, with sea
heights ranging from 10 feet to 13 feet. The gale-force wind
conditions will last for 12 hours or so, ending in the early
afternoon. Please read the Atlantic Ocean High Seas Forecast
under the AWIPS header MIAHSFAT2, and under the WMO header FZNT02
KNHC, for more details.

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

The 42-hour forecast, based on the forecast from 11/1800 UTC,
consists of: a cold front from 30N83W to 25N89W to 22N98W to
19N96W. Expect NW to N gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging
from 9 feet to 11 feet, from 22N to 24N W of 96W. Please read
the Atlantic Ocean High Seas Forecast under the AWIPS header
MIAHSFAT2, and under the WMO header FZNT02 KNHC, for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W, to 05N20W. The ITCZ continues from 05N20W, to
03N30W, crossing the Equator along 41W, and along the Equator to
50W at the coast of Brazil. Precipitation: isolated moderate to
locally strong rainshowers are from 10N southward from 38W
eastward, and from 10N southward between 53W and 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough is moving through the eastern half of the
Gulf of Mexico. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers are from 26N southward from 87W eastward. An E-to-W
oriented surface trough is along 26N83W 25N90W. Rainshowers are
possible also from 26N to 30N between 80W and 87W, including
across Florida, and in the Atlantic Ocean from 26N northward
between 70W and 80W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are in
coastal sections of Cuba from 21N to 23N between 76W and 78W.

The trough that is in the central and eastern sections of the
Gulf will weaken slowly through Sun afternoon. Its associated
numerous shower and thunderstorm activity will translate
eastward through Sun night while decreasing. A cold front will
move off the Texas coast Sun afternoon, then move southeastward
across the entire basin through early Mon and across the Straits
of Florida on Mon evening. A brief instance of gale force winds
is possible behind the front in the far western gulf on Mon and
far SW gulf waters on Mon night. Strong northerly winds
elsewhere in the wake of the front will diminish from the NW
through Mon night. A ridge will extend from northeast Texas to
the Straits of Florida on Tue, and shift NE Wed through Thu.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad surface cyclonic wind flow is present in the Caribbean Sea.
An inverted trough in the surface pressure analysis runs from NW
Haiti to the coastal sections of Colombia near 11N75W.

The SW-most part of an Atlantic Ocean stationary front reaches NW
Haiti. No significant deep convective precipitation is
apparent in satellite imagery.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended
at 10/1200 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 4.46 in
Montego Bay in Jamaica.

Fresh to strong trades will continue across the waters east of
80W, except increasing to minimal gale force during the tonight
off the NW coast of Colombia and Gulf of Venezuela. Fresh to
strong SE winds across the far northwestern part of the sea,
including the Yucatan Channel, will slowly diminish through late
tonight. A strong cold front will enter the Yucatan channel and
far NW Caribbean on Mon, reach from central Cuba to the Gulf of
Honduras on Mon night, and stall from Hispaniola to Nicaragua on
Tue, and dissipate by Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A central Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 32N50W to
26N60W and 23N66W. A stationary front continues from 23N66W to NW
Haiti. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong rainshowers cover the area that is NW of the line that
passes through 32N43W 26N51W 22N62W.

An eastern Atlantic Ocean dissipating cold front passes through
32N09W to 27N15W. No significant deep convective precipitation is
apparent in satellite imagery.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Atlantic Ocean between
the two frontal boundaries. A 1025 mb high pressure center is
near 30N32W. A 1024 mb high pressure center is near 26N48W.

The current stationary front will weaken tonight into early Sun.
Remnants of the front will lift northward on Sun and Sun night,
ahead of another cold front that will emerge off the NE Florida
coast on Sun night. This cold front will extend from near 31N75W
to northwest Cuba late Mon, stall from 27N65W to central Cuba on
and gradually weaken through Thu as high pres builds eastward
over the area.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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