[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110005
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 PM EST Sat Mar 10 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING

Gale-force winds are forecast to start soon, from 11N to 14N
between 73W and 77W in the coastal waters of Colombia, with sea
heights ranging from 10 feet to 13 feet. The gale-force wind
conditions will last for 12 hours or so, ending in the early
afternoon. Please read the Atlantic Ocean High Seas Forecast
under the AWIPS header MIAHSFAT2, and under the WMO header FZNT02
KNHC, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 08N12W, to 06N15W. The ITCZ continues from 06N15W, to
04N20W, 01N30W, crossing the Equator along 33W, to 02S44W near
the coast of Brazil. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong rainshowers are from 07N southward from 60W eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...


An E-to-W oriented surface trough is along 26N83W 25N90W.
in the
SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, from 25N97W near the NE coast of
Mexico, to 17N93W in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern
Mexico. Rainshowers, in general, are possible within 250 nm on
either side of the line from 23N80W in the Straits of Florida, to
25N89W, to the border of Texas and Mexico near 26N97W.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico. A
surface ridge extends from a 1022 mb high pressure center that
is near 29N80W, into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico.

A trough in the central and eastern sections of the Gulf will
weaken slowly through Sun afternoon. Its associated numerous
shower and thunderstorm activity will translate eastward through
Sun night while decreasing. A cold front will move off the Texas
coast Sun afternoon, then move southeastward across the entire
basin through early Mon and across the Straits of Florida on Mon
evening. A brief instance of gale force winds is possible behind
the front over the far western gulf on Mon and far SW gulf waters
on Mon night. Strong northerly winds elsewhere in the wake of the
front will diminish from the NW through Mon night. A ridge will
extend from northeast Texas to the Straits of Florida on Tue, and
shift NE Wed through Thu.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad surface cyclonic wind flow is present in the Caribbean Sea.
An inverted trough in the surface pressure analysis runs from NW
Haiti to the coastal sections of Colombia near 11N75W.

The SW-most part of an Atlantic Ocean stationary front reaches NW
Haiti. No significant deep convective precipitation is
apparent in satellite imagery.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended
at 10/1200 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 4.46 in Montego
Bay in Jamaica.

Fresh to strong trades will continue across the waters east of
80W, except increasing to minimal gale force during the tonight
off the NW coast of Colombia and Gulf of Venezuela. Fresh to
strong SE winds across the far northwestern part of the sea,
including the Yucatan Channel, will slowly diminish through late
tonight. A strong cold front will enter the Yucatan channel and
far NW Caribbean on Mon, reach from central Cuba to the Gulf of
Honduras on Mon night, and stall from Hispaniola to Nicaragua on
Tue, and dissipate by Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A central Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 32N50W to
26N60W and 23N66W. A stationary front continues from 23N66W to NW
Haiti. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong rainshowers cover the area that is NW of the line that
passes through 32N43W 26N51W 22N62W.

An eastern Atlantic Ocean dissipating cold front passes through
32N09W to 27N15W. No significant deep convective precipitation is
apparent in satellite imagery.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Atlantic Ocean between
the two frontal boundaries. A 1025 mb high pressure center is near
30N32W. A 1024 mb high pressure center is near 26N48W.

The current stationary front will weaken tonight into early Sun.
Remnants of the front will lift northward on Sun and Sun night,
ahead of another cold front that will emerge off the NE Florida
coast on Sun night. This cold front will extend from near 31N75W
to northwest Cuba late Mon, stall from 27N65W to central Cuba on
and gradually weaken through Thu as high pres builds eastward over
the area.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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