[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101738
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1238 PM EST Sat Mar 10 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

This morning, scatterometer data indicated minimal gale force
winds across the Gulf of Venezuela, while an altimeter pass
showed seas of 10-12 ft near the coast of Colombia. Although
winds are forecast to diminish below gale force this afternoon and
evening, minimal gale conditions are expected again across the
Gulf of Venezuela, and near the coast of Colombia tonight. Seas
are forecast to build to 11-13 ft near the coast of Colombia.
Please see the latest Atlantic Ocean High Seas Forecast product
under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W to 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from 06N20W to
03N30W to 00N40W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is from
03N-06N betwen 11W-17W. Isolated moderate convection is from 01N-
04N between 27W-33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An area of showers and thunderstorms has flared up across the
northern Gulf waters, mainly N of 25N E of 94W, and is associated
with a vigorous short-wave trough forecast to move eastward
across the Gulf region today. Lightning density indicates frequent
lightning with this observed convective activity. This system
could increase the likelihood of showers with isolated tstms over
south Florida later today into the evening hours as the short-wave
trough digs across the eastern Gulf. As of 1500 UTC, a high pressure
of 1023 mb located E of Florida near 30N76W extends a ridge
across the Gulf, producing moderate to fresh SE-S winds and seas
of 4-7 ft, except 1-3 ft over the NE Gulf. Winds and seas could be
higher near tstms. A cold front will move off the Texas coast Sun
afternoon, then race southeastward across the entire basin through
early Mon, and across the Straits of Florida on Mon evening. Strong
northerly winds and building seas will follow the front. A brief
instance of minimal gale force winds is possible behind the front
over the west-central waters early on Mon, and over the SW Gulf
waters by Mon evening. Seas are forecast to build to 11-12 ft with
the strongest winds. A ridge will extend from northeast Texas to
the Straits of Florida on Tue, and shift NE on Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A vigorous short-wave trough, currently moving across the Gulf of
Mexico, could increase the likehood of showers with isolated
tstms across western Cuba later today into the evening hours. The
Galvez-Davison Index indicates the potential for scattered shallow
convection and isolated to scattered tstms. The most recent
scatterometer passes provide observations of fresh to strong winds
across the east and central Caribbean, and moderate to fresh
winds across the NW Caribbean, with fresh SE winds over the
Yucatan Channel, and fresh NE winds over the Windward Passage.
Fresh to strong trades will continue across the waters east of
80W, except increasing to minimal gale force during the overnight
hours tonight off the NW coast of Colombia and Gulf of Venezuela.
Please see Special Features section. The largest areal extent of
the strong winds over the central Caribbean is expected over this
weekend, with high pressure centered NE of the region. As the high
pressure shifts east early next week, the wind speeds over the
Caribbean will decrease. A strong cold front is forecast to enter
the Yucatan channel and far NW Caribbean on Mon, reach from
central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras on Mon night, stall from
Hispaniola to Nicaragua on Tue, and dissipate on Wed. Moderate to
fresh northerly winds and building seas in the 5-7 kt range are
expected in the wake of the front over the NW Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

As of 1500 UTC, a 1023 mb high pressure is located E of Florida
near 30N76W and extends a ridge across Florida into the Gulf of
Mexico. A cold front stretches from 31N55W to 24N65W, where it
becomes stationary to near the approach to the Windward Passage.
Scattered showers and isolated tstms are seen along the frontal
boundary, but mainly E of 67W. Remnants of the front will lift
north tonight into Sun ahead of another cold front moving off the
northeast Florida coast on Sun night. This second cold front will
extend from near 31N75W to northwest Cuba late Mon, and stall from
27N65W to central Cuba on Wed. Fresh to strong SW winds will
develop ahead of this cold front over the waters N of 27N W of 70W
early on Mon, and expand across the waters N of 27N W of about 62W
by early Mon afternoon. Fresh to strong W-NW winds will follow
the front Mon through Tue morning. E of front, a pair of 1025 mb
high centers are over the east and central Atlantic near 30N33W
and near 26N46W respectively. Farther E, a weakening cold front
crosses between the Canary Islands and the coast of Africa. Seas
of up to 13-14 ft are noted per altimeter data across the waters N
of 20N E of 30W in northerly swell.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
GR
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