[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081151
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
651 AM EST Thu Mar 8 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coast of Africa near 05N09W to
03N12W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 04S38W. Scattered
showers are noted within 200 nm on either side of both boundaries.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure, with a 1025 mb over eastern Texas, extends a ridge
across the Gulf region. Latest scatterometer and surface data
indicate fresh to strong winds over the southwest Gulf, and gentle
to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 6-9 ft range over
the SW Gulf, and 3-5 ft elsewhere. The high pressure will retreat
eastward Sat. This will enable a cold front to move into the
northern waters late Sat night. This front will shift rapidly
across the forecast waters, then southeast of the area by Mon
night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front has entered the NW Caribbean and extends from central
Cuba to the Yucatan Peninsula. Patches of low level moisture with
embedded showers are noted across the basin, particularly across
Jamaica and eastern Cuba. The cold front will move SE today
across the NW Caribbean while weakening. Latest satellite derived
winds and surface observations indicate fresh to strong winds over
the central Caribbean, except off the coast of Colombia where
winds are near gale force. Light to gentle winds prevail over the
western Caribbean, while moderate to fresh winds prevail over the
eastern Caribbean as well as the tropical N Atlc forecast zones.
Large northerly swell propagating through the northeastern
Caribbean passages, and through the tropical waters east of the
Lesser Antilles, will gradually subside through the remainder of
this week. Fresh to strong trades will prevail across the south-
central Caribbean through the upcoming weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends across the western Atlantic from 31N66W to
central Cuba. Scattered showers are associated with the front.
To the east, a 1018 mb high is centered near 24N62W. Another cold
front extends over the Atlantic from 31N28W to 23N45W. A 1020 mb
high is centered over the east Atlantic near 24N22W. The current
large northerly swell will subside slowly across the open waters
through the end of the week. The cold front over the west Atlantic
will continue moving east reaching from 31N65W to eastern Cuba
by Friday morning. A secondary push of cool air will reach the
west Atlantic later today and progress across the basin through
the weekend. The front over the central Atlantic will weaken and
dissipate during the next 24 hours as a surface ridge prevails.
Another front is expected to move offshore over the west Atlantic
by the end of this weekend.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
GR
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