[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071748
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1248 PM EST Wed Mar 7 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: WEAKENING COLD FRONT FROM 31N39W TO
24N50W TO 26N65W. N OF 30N BETWEEN 45W AND 53W W WINDS 30 TO 35
KT. SEAS 23 TO 26 FT. The gale-force winds will last for the next
12 hours or so.

Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: The 6-HOUR FORECAST: Second cold
front from 31N75W TO 26N80W. N OF 28N WITHIN 120 NM E OF FRONT SW
WINDS 30 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 TO 17 FT.

Please read the Atlantic Ocean High Seas Forecast under the AWIPS
header MIAHSFAT2, and under the WMO header FZNT02 KNHC for more
details.

Large northerly swell, propagating southward through the
northeastern Caribbean Sea passages, and through the tropical
waters to the east of the Lesser Antilles, will subside gradually
through the remainder of this week. Fresh-to-strong trades will
prevail across the south-central Caribbean Sea through the
upcoming weekend. Please read the Offshore Waters Forecast, under
the AWIPS header MIAOFFNT3, and under the WMO header FZNT23 KNHC,
for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal sections of Liberia
near 07N11W, to 05N15W. The ITCZ continues from 05N15W, to
02N24W and 01N38W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong rainshowers from 07N southward from 50W eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front passes through central Florida near 28N82W, to
24N90W, to the coast of Mexico near 21N97W, continuing
northwestward to 26N103W in Mexico. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong from 28N southward from 90W
westward. isolated moderate from 22N northward from 90W eastward.

A surface ridge is building to the north of the cold front,
passing through the Deep South of Texas, to 20N97W in Mexico.

The current Gulf of Mexico cold front will move south of the area
tonight. High pressure will build in the wake of the front. The
next cold front will move into the northern waters late on
Saturday night, reaching the far southeast waters late on Sunday
night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is along 16N55W 15N58W, across the island of
Martinique, to 14N62W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong rainshowers are from 10N to 15N between 59W and 73W, near
Venezuela and Colombia, Trinidad and Tobago, Barbados, and the
other islands in the SE corner of the Caribbean Sea.

Large northerly swell, propagating southward through the
northeastern Caribbean Sea passages, and through the tropical
waters to the east of the Lesser Antilles, will subside gradually
through the remainder of this week. Fresh-to-strong trades will
prevail across the south-central Caribbean Sea through the
upcoming weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more details about
the ongoing event of gale-force winds, for the western and
central Atlantic Ocean. Please read the Atlantic Ocean High Seas
Forecast under the AWIPS header MIAHSFAT2, and under the WMO
header FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

A first cold front passes through 32N21W to 29N30W, and 25N40W.
A stationary front continues from 25N40W, to 19N50W and 16N55W.
A surface trough continues from 16N55W to 14N62W, just to the west
of the island of Martinique, in the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation:
isolated to widely scattered moderate rainshowers are within 60 nm
on either side of 33N26W 28N31W. rainshowers are possible
elsewhere within 240 nm on either side of 24N35W 18N46W 12N59W.

A second cold front curves through 32N39W to 24N50W 24N58W and
26N65W. rainshowers are possible in scattered-to-broken low level
clouds, that are from 20N northward between 33W and 70W.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean, from 10N
northward to the east of the first cold front/stationary front. A
1020 mb high pressure center is near 25N25W.

The current large northerly swell will subside slowly across the
open waters through the end of the week. A cold front is moving
offshore NE Florida this morning, with near gale-force to minimal
gale conditions developing north of 28N east of the front today.
The front will reach from Bermuda to Central Cuba on Thursday
morning, and then from 27N65W to Hispaniola on Friday morning. A
second cold front will move eastward across the waters north of
the Bahamas on Thursday, and merge with the first cold front
across the waters N of Puerto Rico late on Friday. A third cold
front will move into the NW waters late this weekend.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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