[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 052114 AAA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...UPDATED
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
413 PM EST Mon Mar 5 2018

UPDATED SPECIAL FEATURES FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE SE CARIBBEAN
SEA NEAR TRINIDAD AND SAINT VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Ocean Storm Warning: Gale-force winds are being
experienced now. COLD FRONT from 31N42W to 20N57W to 17N63W. N of
29N BETWEEN 58W AND 66W NW WINDS 30 to 35 KT. SEAS 22 to 26 feet.
Storm-force winds are being forecast in 18 hours. Weakening cold
front from 31N37W to 20N49W to 17N55W. N of 29N between 58W and
64W WINDS 40 to 50 KT. SEAS 25 to 34 feet. Please read the
Atlantic Ocean High Seas Forecast under the AWIPS header
MIAHSFAT2, and under the WMO header FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

Large northerly swell will continue to push through the Atlantic
Ocean passages, reaching the A-B-C Islands and coastal Venezuela
through mid-week. This large swell also will propagate through
the Tropical North Atlantic Ocean waters through the week. Fresh
to strong winds will develop in the Central Caribbean Sea during
the middle of the week. Please read the Offshore Waters
Forecast, under the AWIPS header MIAOFFNT3, and under the WMO
header FZNT23 KNHC, for more details.

It is likely that heavy rainfall will continue in Trinidad,
Tobago, and S Leeward islands through tonight. Five inches of
rain were reported in Trinidad, during the last 24 hours, as of
05/1200 UTC, per the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC. A surface trough is part of the
surface map analysis for 05/1800 UTC, from 10N63W in northern
Venezuela, to 12N62W, to the waters near 13N61W just to the west
of the island of Saint Vincent.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 07N12W, to 03N18W. The ITCZ continues from 03N18W to
the Equator along 30W, to the Equator along 40W. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 03N southward,
to the coast of Brazil, between 35W and 50W and the coast of
Brazil. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 06N from 30W
eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire area. A
surface ridge extends from a 1020 mb southern Georgia high
pressure center, across NW Cuba, to 20N82W in the NW corner of
the Caribbean Sea.

The current high pressure and anticyclonic wind flow will slide
eastward today. This will enable a cold front to enter the NW
Gulf tonight. The front will shift across the forecast waters
through Wednesday night, and then SE of the area on Thursday.
High pressure will build in the wake of the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level dry air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery, practically everywhere in the basin. The only part of
the area where the comparatively drier air is not present is in
the extreme SE corner, to the SE of the line 14N60W 11N68W.
Upper level SW wind flow is present in the SE corner of the
Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong rainshowers are from 10N to 14N between 60W and 69W.

A cold front passes through 18N60W in the Atlantic Ocean, across
the islands, to 17N64W in the Caribbean Sea. The cold front is
dissipating from 17N64W to 15N71W. Precipitation: rainshowers
are possible in scattered to broken low level clouds, that are
to the north of the line that passes through 17N62W 14N70W
10N80W.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that
ended at 05/1200 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are: 5.06 in
Trinidad, 0.13 in St. Thomas in the U.S. Virgin Islands, and
0.08 in San Juan in Puerto Rico.

Large northerly swell will continue to push through the Atlantic
Ocean passages, reaching the A-B-C Islands and coastal Venezuela
through mid-week. This large swell also will propagate through
the Tropical North Atlantic Ocean waters through the week. Fresh
to strong winds will develop in the Central Caribbean Sea during
the middle of the week. It is likely that heavy rainfall will
continue in Trinidad, Tobago, and S Leeward islands through
tonight.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more details about
the ongoing gale-force winds and storm-force winds event for the
western and central Atlantic Ocean. Please read the Atlantic
Ocean High Seas Forecast under the AWIPS header MIAHSFAT2, and
under the WMO header FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are within 180
nm on either side of the line that passes through 32N37W to
24N45W to 15N56W to 10N62W, near NE Venezuela and Trinidad.
Surface-to-low level moisture is moving around the ridge, into
the area of the upper level trough that is associated with the
cold front.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 07N
northward to the east of the cold front. A 1022 mb high pressure
center is near 26N26W.

Strong to gale force winds prevail N of 25N E of 73W. The gale
force winds will shift E of the area by early Tuesday. Large
mixed northerly swell will affect all the waters E of Florida
and the Bahamas through mid-week. Another cold front will impact
the waters E of Florida on Tuesday night and Wednesday, and then
shift E of the area by the end of the week. Gale force winds
will be possible on Wednesday N of 29N and between 70W and 75W
associated with this front.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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