[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050603
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
103 AM EST Mon Mar 5 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Storm Warning: Cold front extends from near 32N43W to
22N54W to the NE Caribbean near 16N66W where it starts to
dissipate westward to the Gulf of Honduras. A very tight pressure
gradient between the front and intense 976 mb low pressure
centered well north of the discussion area near 38N56W continues
to maintain 30 to 35 kt winds north of 28N between 52W and 60W,
and between 65W and 69W. Large seas in the 19 to 27 ft range is
forecast in that region. The cold front will continue to weaken
this morning. However, a second round of vigorous winds and seas
can is expected tonight and Tue morning as tight low pressure
develops within a trough that rotates around the south side of the
parent low over the Western Atlantic. Gale to storm conditions
can be generally expected N of 28N between 50W and 70W during this
time frame. Gale conditions will persist through Wed while
shifting eastward over the central Atlantic. Please refer to the
Atlantic High Seas Forecast under the AWIPS header MIAHSFAT2 and
under the WMO header FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends through the coastal sections of
Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 02N21W. The ITCZ continues from
02N21W to 0N40W to Brazil coastal waters near 01N50W. Isolated
showers are over coastal waters of Liberia and Sierra Leone
Africa and within 150 nm either side of the ITCZ W of 37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A strong and elongated ridge along the eastern CONUS continue to
extend southward and across the Gulf of Mexico. This ridge provides
light to moderate NE to E winds over the eastern half of the
basin and E to SE moderate flow across the western Gulf. GOES-16
water vapor imagery show very dry air present in the mid to upper
levels, which is restricting convection and supporting mainly
clear skies. The surface ridge will slide eastward through
tonight, thus allowing for the next cold front to move into the NW
Gulf early Tuesday morning. A secondary surge of cold air will
push the front across the rest of basin by Thu morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The tail of a cold front associated with the intense low pressure
system over the NW Atlc extends across Anguilla to NE Caribbean
waters near 16N68W where the front starts to weaken westward to
the Gulf of Honduras. No significant convection accompanies this
weakening boundary. Aside from shallow moisture associated with
the front, deep layer dry air is over most of the basin, which
supports mostly clear skies and fair weather conditions. The
exception is the SE Caribbean where a small area of convergent
low-level flow is supporting the continuation of cloudiness as
well as isolated showers over the southern Windward Islands and NE
Venezuela.

Large NE swell will continue affecting the tropical Atlantic
Ocean waters through mid week as the low pressure system lingers
over NW Atlc waters and secondary low pres develops on the S side
of the system. This will generate large N to NE swell that will
penetrate the NE Caribbean Sea Passages through Thu and reach the
A-B-C Islands as well as the coast of Venezuela. Otherwise, the
low pressure center will drag the weakening tail of the cold
front SE to the northern Windward Islands through tonight when it
is forecast to dissipate. A new cold front will move over the NW
Caribbean by Thu afternoon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more details about
the ongoing gale event over the western and central Atlantic.

A cold front associated with an intense low pressure system over
the NW Atlc, enters the area of discussion near 32N43W and
continues to 22N54W to the NE Caribbean near 16N66W where it
starts to dissipate westward to the Gulf of Honduras.

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring along
and up to 120 nm ahead of the front N of 23N. Strong to gale
force winds continue to persist behind this front. These
conditions are forecast to continue through Thursday as the front
moves E into the central Atlantic and weakens. The largest swell
event thus far this winter is already in progress and will be
reinforced by the development of a secondary low pres near 35N60W
on Tue morning. The large swell will continue to affect all
waters E of Florida and the Bahamas through Wed. Another strong
cold front is forecast to impact the waters E of Florida
Wednesday through early next weekend. Gales will be possible
along the front N of 28N as the front emerges from the Georgia
and Florida coasts. Otherwise, surface ridging anchored by a 1020
mb high near 23N28W dominates the remaining central and eastern
Atlantic Ocean waters.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
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