[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030518
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1218 AM EST Sat Mar 3 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning:

COLD FRONT FROM 31N63W TO 27N71W TO 25N80W. N OF 29N W OF
FRONT TO 76W W TO NW WINDS 30 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 TO 19 FT.
The gale-force wind conditions will persist for the next 48 hours
or so with the cold front.

Eastern Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning:

A cold front currently passes through 32N10W to 28N20W to 23N30W,
to 19N40W and 19N44W. A surface trough continues from 19N44W to
21N51W. N OF 29N E OF 38W W TO NW WINDS 30 TO 35 KT. SEAS 18 TO
20 FT IN NW SWELL.

Please read the Atlantic Ocean High Seas Forecast, listed under
the AWIPS header, MIAHSFAT2, and under the WMO header, FZNT02
KNHC, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of southern
Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 03N16W. The ITCZ continues from 03N16W,
crossing the Equator along 21W, to 03S30W, and 03S37W off the
coast of Brazil. A surface trough is along 44W/45W from 03N
southward. Precipitation: isolated moderate rainshowers from 08N
southward between 40W and 50W. isolated moderate to locally strong
rainshowers are from 01N southward between 20W and 30W.
rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W
eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front cuts across south Florida, just to the south of Lake
Okeechobee, to 26N88W in the Gulf of Mexico. The front becomes
stationary, and it continues from 26N88W, to 26N94W, curving to
the northern part of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern
Mexico. A surface trough was showing up in scatterometer data,
about 150 nm to the east of the stationary front, from 24N
southward to Mexico. Broken to overcast low level clouds are to
the north and northwest of the line 26N86W 25N94W 19N96W.

The stationary front will dissipate today, as the cold front
sinks southward into the Straits of Florida this afternoon,
before dissipating. A ridge will build across the northern Gulf
on Sunday and Monday. It is possible that another cold front may
move into the NW Gulf on Monday night, moving across the basin
through Wednesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is along 62W/63W, from 17N to the coast of
Venezuela. Rainshowers are possible from the coast of Venezuela to
16N between 55W in the Atlantic Ocean and 66W in the Caribbean
Sea.

An upper level trough/shear axis extends from 15N66W, to 11N76W,
continuing SW beyond 10N83W in Costa Rica. 12N73W, to the coast
of Panama near 09N80W. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere, in
areas of scattered-to-broken low level clouds, across the
Caribbean Sea and in parts of the adjacent Atlantic Ocean, from
20N southward from 60W westward.

Large NE swell will impact the tropical Atlantic Ocean waters
through Saturday. A low pressure system will deepen across the NW
Atlantic Ocean, during the weekend. It will produce a large N
swell, that will penetrate the NE Caribbean Sea Passages from
Sunday through late Wednesday, reaching the A-B-C Islands and
coastal Venezuela. The low pressure center will drag a cold front
into the northern Caribbean Sea on Saturday night, gradually
dissipating through early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more details about
the two gale-force wind events for the Atlantic Ocean.

An eastern Atlantic Ocean cold front currently passes through
32N10W to 28N20W to 23N30W, to 19N40W and 19N44W. A surface trough
continues from 19N44W to 21N51W. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 27N northward
between 20W and 37W. Rainshowers are possible from 17N to 25N
between 40W and 50W. Another frontal boundary is to the north of
32N, moving E and SE.

A western Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 32N61W, to
28N70W, across parts of the NW Bahamas, just to the south of Lake
Okeechobee in South Florida, and into the Gulf of Mexico.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers are from 28N northward between 47W and 63W. Other
rainshowers are possible from 22N northward between 50W and 80W.

Strong to gale force winds prevail behind the western Atlantic
Ocean cold front. The front will shift southeast of the area on
Sunday, with gale-force wind conditions shifting east of the
area. The largest swell event thus far in this winter season will
accompany this system, affecting all waters E of Florida and the
Bahamas through Tuesday. It is possible that another strong cold
front may impact the waters E of Florida on Tuesday night,
shifting east through Wednesday night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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